Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Miami Heat Will Force Haters To Learn A New Tune After They Beat The Jazz

All of the analysts talking about the Miami Heat's supposed weaknesses at point guard and center will be exposed as false prophets tonight after Heat's home game against Deron Williams, Al Jefferson and the Utah Jazz.

Based on the formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game, the Heat have a 98.7 percent chance of beating the Jazz when they visit Miami tonight.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers that went into the formula:

>Miami Heat Average Wins Produced per 48 minutes: 0.187 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
>Miami Heat Pace: 91.5 possessions per game (see basketball-reference.com)
>Miami Heat Days Rest: Two (last game was 101-89 win over N.J. Nets on 11/7/10)
>Location: American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL (low altitude)

>Utah Jazz Average Wins Produced per 48 minutes: 0.092 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
>Utah Jazz Pace: 95.5 possessions per game (see basketball-reference.com)
>Utah Jazz Days Rest: Two (last game was 109-107 2OT win over L.A. Clippers on 11/7/10)

I've mentioned previously that the Heat won't be favored to lose a home game all season and this game is a perfect example of why.  The Heat are literally twice as good as the Jazz and there should be no question about how this game will end.

The only question after this game will be whether or not the "experts" proclaiming the Heat's weaknesses at point guard and center will keep singing that same old, tired song after Deron Williams and Al Jefferson get run out of the building.

Predicted score: Heat 100, Jazz 86.

For a detailed explanation of Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48), see http://www.stumblingonwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html.


  1. Might want to rewrite this post. So let's see, what's the order of blame for this monumental loss? Let me guess. Fluke? Refs? Bosh? Coach? Maybe that 1.3% chance has to happen 1.3 times out of a 100, and this was it! Either that, or your calculation was a weee bit off. Nah.

  2. Order of blame? Good question...

    1. Bad 4th quarters. I mentioned this was a problem in my last post (see http://miami-heat-index.blogspot.com/2010/11/miami-heat-check-chris-paul-nj-nets.html).

    2. LeBron's matador D on Deron Williams in the 2nd half.

    3. Wade choking at the FT line (something he's done before - remember last season's game in LA against the Lakers?)

    4. Spoelstra looking shocked & stupid on the sideline as he watched his team choke away a 22-pt lead despite the fact that he HAD to know they've been terrible in the 4th quarter all season.

    5. Millsap having a miracle night from three-point land and hitting a last-second shot. This could probably be higher, but I'm REALLY pissed at the Heat.

    6. Wade's inability to stay in front of Ronnie Freaking Price in OT...

    7. LeBron not trusting his teammates to defend the paint and leaving Kirilenko for wide-open three-pointers.

    I could go on and on... but I digress.

  3. This is why it is so hard to get to 75 wins -- or, in the case of the Wizards, to get to 75 losses. At the ends of the spectrum, teams seemingly have a hard time living up to (or down to) their statistical potential.

  4. Yeah, but how cool would it be if I'm right?

    "I'd rather die enormous than live dormant, that's how we on it. Live at the main event? I'd bet a trip to Maui on it." -Jay-Z, "Can I Live"