Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Heat Beat Bucks In Boring Game

I don't have a lot to say about the Heat-Bucks game because it was such a boring affair.

Outside of a great no-look pass from Dwyane Wade to LeBron James for a monster dunk (and one of the best photos in the NBA this year), there wasn't a lot of excitement in this game.

Why wasn't there a lot of excitement? Because the Bucks are a bad basketball team. Any team with Chris Douglas-Roberts in the rotation is not a good team (despite the fact he played well against Miami).

Since the game was so boring, there's no lengthy recap. The wins produced stats are featured below.

The figures below use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Bucks. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @BUCKS-120610).

The Heat Produced page has been updated and the biggest change is that Zydrunas Ilgauskas is no longer in the top five thanks to three consecutive games with negative productivity. Big Z has been the least productive player on the team over the last three games with -0.308 EWP48 and -0.314 EWP.

The problem for Big Z? He hasn't scored in a week. He's missed all seven shots he's taken in the last seven days. Hopefully, that changes tonight in Utah.

You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from and

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