Friday, December 31, 2010

Heat Produced: Miami 125, Houston Rockets 119

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Heat's win over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night.


This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:



Agent D3 Dominated Another Day
Of course, Dwyane Wade dominated this game by going for 40 points for the second time in 24 hours. In fact, he produced an estimated WP48 greater than  0.450 in the first, second and fourth quarters. In the third quarter he only produced an estimated 0.169 WP48. His estimated 0.370 wins produced was his eighth-highest total this season.

Despite Wade having his "worst" quarter in the third period, it was Miami's best. The Heat produced 0.296 more estimated wins than the Rockets in the third quarter. For the season, the Heat have produced an estimated 8.4 wins in the third quarter while limiting the opponents' production to just 0.6 estimated wins.

After Wade, is an odd mix of production for the Heat. LeBron James was the second-most productive player but was well below his average performance. He only produced 0.169 EWP48 in the game but averages 0.250 EWP48 for the season. Chris Bosh had his worst game in 54 days with -0.107 EWP48 and was the least productive player on the floor for the Heat. He did come through in the big third quarter with 0.210 EWP48 but his production was terrible for most of the night because he did not crash the boards.

The most productive players after LeBron were the big men off the bench - Juwan Howard and Joel "Doc" Anthony (Chris Bosh revealed Anthony's nickname on the Dan LeBatard Show this week). Howard pulled down four rebounds in his nine minutes of action while Doc hit clutch free throws and grabbed some clutch rebounds in the fourth quarter as Spoelstra kept him in for the whole period.

Playing Doc the entire fourth quarter wasn't the only change in Spoelstra's rotation. He gave a glimpse into how Mike Miller would be worked into the rotation by starting him in Dwyane Wade's place at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Miller had his most productive game of the season, but only managed to produce an estimated -0.001 wins in 6.8 minutes.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Rockets. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @ROCKETS-122910).



You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.

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