The Jazz entered that game 3-3 and the Heat were 5-2. The Jazz have gone 13-3 since the Musical Miracle by Biscayne Bay while the Heat have only gone 9-6 and the rematch will be played in Utah instead of Miami. So, what are the odds the Heat will get some revenge tonight?
Basketball-reference.com gives Miami a 52 percent chance of avenging last month's miracle. Based on a formula for determining a team's probability of winning a single game based on each player's Wins Produced, the Heat have a 42.4 percent chance of beating the Jazz.
Here's a breakdown of the numbers used to determine the Heat's probability of winning:
- Miami Heat (14-8)
- Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.147 (see the Heat Produced page)
- Average Possessions Per Game: 90.8 (see basketball-reference.com)
- Days Rest: One (last game was 88-78 win at Milwaukee on 12/06/10)
- Utah Jazz (16-6)
- Average Wins Produced Per 48 Minutes: 0.131 (according to the Wins Produced Viewer)
- Average Possessions Per Game: 90.9
- Days Rest: One (last game was 94-85 win vs. Memphis on 12/06/10)
- Location: EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City, UT (high altitude)
The Heat are legitimate underdogs in this game. This game will be a test of whether all the talk about the team "figuring it out" after the players-only meeting in Dallas was rhetoric or reality.
I'm hoping it's a new reality for the Heat.
Predicted score: Heat 95, Jazz 91.
For a detailed explanation of Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48), see http://www.stumblingonwins.com/CalculatingWinsProduced.html.