Monday, December 13, 2010

Miami Heat Check: Dwyane Wade Leads The Way To Great Eight

A little California Love has the Heat on an eight-game winning streak.

The Miami Heat have an eight-game winning streak after Dwyane Wade led them to a sweep through two games in California this weekend. Let's review the weekend Truehoop style with links to other recaps of the games from Heat beat writers and bloggers with a little statistical analysis sprinkled in the mix.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:


Heat 106, Warriors 84

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade likely could have come out ahead in this one playing two-on-five. Wade finished with 34 points. James, who sat out the fourth quarter, scored 25.

Wade and LeBron combined to produce an estimated 0.472 wins. That's not enough to win a game, but it's more than the estimated -0.181 wins the Golden State Warriors managed to produce as a team.

Carlos Arroyo went all Bucks on the Warriors. When he’s on, he’s on. He made all four of his shots.

Arroyo was the second-most productive Heat player in the game with an estimated 0.225 wins produced and 0.576 EWP48. He was the most productive player against the Bucks with an estimated 0.414 wins produced and 0.615 EWP48.

The shorthanded Warriors played former Heat forward Dorell Wright and guard Monta Ellis all 24 first-half minutes.
Wright entered with four 20-point games for the Warriors, after recording just three such performances in his first six NBA seasons in Miami. He had four first-half 3-pointers.

Wright had a good first half against his former team with 0.210 EWP48. Unfortunately for Golden State, he was shutdown in the second half and only produced -0.586 EWP48.

From Hot Hot Hoops:


Dwyane Wade looked as if he was going to have a rough night after getting elbowed inadvertently by Andris Biedrins 52 seconds into the game and needed several minutes to shake it off. Without missing a beat, Wade continued to build synergy with LeBron James with each of them also dominant while the other rested.

Wade was the most productive player for Miami with an estimated 0.276 wins produced and 0.384 EWP48. He got off to a slow start when he returned to the game (for him, anyway) with just 0.151 EWP48 in the first half, but he turned it up in the second half. Wade produced 0.611 EWP48 in the second half.

From HEAT.com:

...[T]he Golden State Warriors’ 13 turnovers – many of which came from tipped passes – allowed LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to streak down the wings and act as catalysts for a 13-0 run early in the third quarter that, effectively, decided Miami’s 106-84 win then and there.
The third quarter against the Warriors was the Heat's most productive quarter of the season with an estimated 0.661 wins produced. The previous high for estimated wins produced in a period was the first quarter against the Pistons on December 1st.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Warriors. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @WARRIORS-121010).


Heat 104, Kings 83

Dwyane Wade pulled the Heat back into the game in the second quarter and LeBron James again helped finish it off at the end of the third. These third quarters are getting frightening.

Wade played like an immortal amongst children of a lesser god in the second quarter. He produced 1.128 EWP48(!) in 10 minutes of playing time for an estimated 0.235 wins produced. Thanks to Wade, the Heat outplayed the Kings in the second quarter by an estimated 0.808 wins as they posted their fourth-best quarter of the season with an estimated 0.588 wins produced. Wade finished the game as the most productive player on the Heat with an estimated 0.504 wins produced.

After his big game against the Kings, Wade moved back into the top spot on the Heat Produced page. He now leads Miami with an estimated 4.6 wins produced and 0.262 EWP48. LeBron James is second with an estimated 4.4 wins produced and 0.230 EWP48.

[D]on’t sell Chris Bosh short in this one. He powered the Heat’s dominance on the boards, closing with 14 points and 17 rebounds.

Bosh was the second-most productive player for the Heat with an estimated 0.334 wins produced and 0.445 EWP48. It was Bosh's second-best performance this season. His best performance was the 35-point explosion against the Phoenix Suns on November 17th with an estimated 0.455 wins produced and 0.723 EWP48.

It was another of those nights where Mario Chalmers seemingly gave back all he provided.

I think the Sun-Sentinel's Ira Winderman is off on this point. Chalmers' production was below average at Golden State with just 0.046 EWP48, but he was average against the Kings with 0.101 EWP48.

The problem I think Winderman is touching on is that Chalmers provided all of that production in the Heat's big second quarter. In the second quarter, Chalmers produced 0.665 EWP48 but in the other three quarters he was terrible with -0.215 EWP48. Coincidentally, he did the same thing against the Warriors. Chalmers produced an amazing 0.812 EWP48 in the second quarter, but was terrible in the other three quarters with -0.444 EWP48.

I don't know what's going on with Chalmers' up and down production, but it's worth following to see if it continues or Spoelstra adjusts his rotation.

From Hot Hot Hoops:

...[M]uch like a fight scene in the movies where the overmatched little guy gets one shot in before getting pummeled, the Heat blew the gates open in the second half en route to the easy victory.
It took the Sacramento Kings half of the third quarter to score their third and fourth point but by then the game had quickly gotten out of hand.

The third quarter against the Kings was the Heat's second-best quarter of the season with an estimated 0.638 wins produced. Miami outplayed Sacramento by an estimated 0.841 wins in the third quarter. Bosh was the most productive Heat player in the third quarter by scoring six points without missing a shot and grabbing four rebounds with one assist, one block, one turnover and one foul in 8.6 minutes for an estimated 0.178 wins produced and 0.992 EWP48.

The Heat outscored the Kings 87-59 for the last three quarters of the game.

The Kings were terrible in the last three quarters with an estimated -0.559 wins produced. This game was the Heat's second-best performance of the season with an estimated 1.425 wins produced. The game against the Timberwolves on November 2nd was still the high point with an estimated 1.509 wins produced.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Kings. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @KINGS-121110).


You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.netespn.com and nba.com.

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