Thursday, January 6, 2011

Heat Produced: Back-to-Back Wins Over Bobcats and Bucks

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the back-to-back games against the Charlotte Bobcats and Milwaukee Bucks.



This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's performance. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:


Two quick notes before the box scores:

1) The Heat only led the Bobcats by four points at the half in Charlotte but the game was blown wide open in the third quarter and extended the lead to 20 points. It was the Heat's fifth-most productive quarter of the season with an estimated 0.594 wins produced while holding the Bobcats to an estimated -0.432 wins produced. That productivity margin of an estimated 1.202 wins produced is the biggest gap of the season.

The Heat have produced an estimated 9.6 wins in third quarters this season while their opponents have only produced an estimated -0.6 wins in the same period.

2) The second-most productive Heat player against the Bobcats was Joel Anthony with an estimated 0.324 wins produced in 35.3 minutes for 0.440 EWP48. I know Dan LeBatard is starting a movement to call him "The Warden", but I'm confident the nickname Shaq gave him, "Doc", is better suited for the Canadian-Haitian. Nicknames aside, I never thought I'd see a game this season when Joel Anthony was one of the team's two most productive players.

If you want more commentary on the game, then check out the Miami Heat Index Twitter feed in the sidebar on the left.

The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Bobcats. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @BOBCATS-010311).


The spreadsheet below contains the Wins Produced analysis of the box score for the game against the Bucks. You can also view it at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled BUCKS-010411).


You can find all of the updated stats for Estimated Wins Produced by Miami Heat players on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.

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