Sunday, January 30, 2011

Off the Index: Debunking the NBA Sophomore Slump for Rookie Guards

I posted a new article on Bleacher Report that debunks the myth put forward in an NBA.com article that star rookie guards struggle in their second NBA seasons as teams prepare defenses and scouting reports to stop them.

Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry & Brandon Jennings: Are They in a Sophomore Slump? | Bleacher Report


The article is Powered by NerdNumbers (including the new Game Splits tool) but I wanted to post the spreadsheet here, since I wasn't able to post it at Bleacher Report.


The Bleacher Report article looks at the three biggest declines for "star" rookie guards (i.e they were either chosen with a lottery pick or received votes for Rookie of the Year), but here I wanted to list the three biggest improvements by a player from their rookie season to their sophomore season.

RANK. PLAYER (TEAM), YR1 WP48 - YR2 WP48 (CHG)
1. Fred Jones (IND), 0.047 WP48 - 0.092 WP48 (+0.178)
2. Mike Dunleavy (GSW), 0.063 WP48 - 0.200 WP48 (+0.137)
3. Acie Law (ATL), -0.097 WP48 - 0.040 WP48 (+0.137)

This post would probably have been better suited after lineups for the Rookie-Sophomore game was announced for All-Star Weekend, but Stephen Curry is on my fantasy team and I'd been wondering about a slump myself. 

Hope you enjoy it now or on All-Star Saturday, when it's more appropriate.

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