Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 82, Boston 85

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Heat's 82-85 loss to the Celtics.

I have a lot to say about this game and no time to say it before the Pacers game tonight, so bullet points from Twitter will have to do for now.


This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (WP48), a star player produces 0.200+ WP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics



You can view the Estimated Wins Produced analysis for the Heat-Celtics game at Google Docs (click on the spreadsheet labeled @CELTICS-021311).



  • The third quarter was the worst quarter of the season, in terms of Estimated Wins Produced, with a productivity gap of 0.909 Est. Wins Produced. The Celtics produced an estimated 0.672 wins while the Heat produced an estimated -0.237 wins.
  • The Heat's third quarter annihilation in Boston on Sunday was the fourth straight game they were outplayed in the third quarter. What once was a strength has been a weakness in the last 7 days.
  • Chris Bosh was the most productive player against the Celtics with an estimated 0.253 wins produced in 41.2 minutes for 0.295 est. WP48
  • You could tell from previous games that Bosh was working his way back from the ankle injury towards a good game against the Celtics. He produced 0.407 est. WP48 against the Pistons on Friday night.
  • Bosh had his 11th best game of season on Sunday against the Celtics. His Top 10 games are listed here.


  • Mike Miller was the second most productive player against the Celtics with an estimated 0.159 wins produced in 24.5 minutes for 0.311 est. WP48
  • Rumors of Mario Chalmers' demise were greatly exaggerated. He produced 0.324 est. WP48 but only played 12.9 minutes. He was the third most productive Heat player.
  • Heat coach Erik Spoelstra replaced Chalmers with Miller just two minutes into the third quarter. Miller shot 0-3 from the floor, 1-2 from the line, with two rebounds, one assist and two personal fouls to produce an estimated -0.298 wins in the third quarter.
  • Chalmers only had one turnover in the game. I think Spoelstra yanked him too early. Celtics coach Doc Rivers said he thought putting Rajon Rondo on LeBron James (while ineffective) gave the Celtics the energy they needed to go on a big run and get out to double digit lead. Who's to say what would have happened if Chalmers stayed in the game and was able to withstand Rondo's ball pressure (not saying he definitely could have, but it was a possibility)?
  • LeBron produced an estimated 0.080 wins in 43.5 minutes for 0.088 est.WP48; Dwyane Wade produced -0.039 wins in 42.4 minutes for -0.044 est.WP48
  • Wade was productive in the first and fourth quarters with 0.259 est.WP48 when he grabbed four rebounds and only committed two turnovers in 21.5 minutes and was unproductive in the second and third quarters with -0.366 est.WP48
  • Was Wade fatigued from chasing Ray Allen around (and through) screens? He shot 2-10 in the second half against the Celtics but was 4-7 in the first half
  • Wade went from having his second best game of the season last week against the Clippers with an estimated 0.505 wins produced and 0.651 est.WP48, to having his 10th worst game of the season on Sunday against the Celtics with an estimated -0.039 wins produced and -0.044 est.WP48.
  • The average Win Score per 48 minutes for shooting guards in Heat-Celtics game on Sunday was -0.3. Wade won the race to the bottom, unfortunately. Allen finished the game with 0.240 est.WP48
  • Allen is averaging 0.300 est.WP48 against the Heat this season; Wade is averaging -0.220 est.WP48 against the Celtics. That's been the difference in the three games. The Celtics have produced 2.022 est. wins and the Heat have produced 0.978 est. wins for a difference of 1.044 est. wins. Allen has produced an estimated 0.771 wins against the Heat and Wade has produced an estimated -0.546 wins against the Celtics for an estimated 1.3 wins difference.
  • Least productive Heat player was James Jones with an estimated -0.103 wins produced in 6.8 minutes for -0.727 est.WP48
  • The Three Kings averaged 0.111 est.WP48 against the Celtics on Sunday; Boston's Big Three averaged -0.049 est.WP48 (Pierce produced -0.437 est.WP48)
  • Rondo was a problem with an estimated 0.341 wins produced in 43.1 minutes for 0.379 est.WP48; Glen "Big Baby" Davis was the second-most productive player on the Celtics with an estimated 0.230 wins produced
  • And then there was Von Wafer with an estimated 0.221 wins produced in 13.8 minutes for 0.768 est.WP48 ...*SMH*
  • Here's a breakdown of Heat production (est.WP48) by position against the Celtics on Sunday: C (-0.026), PF (0.150), SF (0.386), SG (-0.060), PG (-0.085)
  • Here's a breakdown of Heat production by position against the Celtics after three games - SFs: 0.176 est.WP48, Cs: 0.060 est.WP48, PGs: -0.054 est.WP48, SGs: -0.085 est.WP48
  • LeBron has produced 0.200 est.WP48 at small forward against the Celtics and -0.085 est.WP48 at point guard where he's only shot 34.5%
  • Heat power forwards have averaged 0.229 est.WP48 against the Celtics. Fake tough guy Kevin Garnett has only averaged 0.144 est.WP48 against the Heat.
  • Celtics shooting guards are shooting 63.5% against the Heat in 3 games
  • Heat starters produced 0.108 est.WP48; Celtics starters produced 0.060 est.WP48
  • The Heat bench only produced 0.003 est.WP48; Celtics bench produced 0.393 est.WP48 
  • Ninety percent of the Celtics' production has come in the second and third quarters.
  • Seventy percent of the Heat's production has come in the fourth quarter as they've tried to come back from double-digit deficits.

All of the estimated wins produced stats for the Heat-Celtics season series can be found here. For in-game commentary about the Heat-Celtics game without stats, check out the Twitter feed.


Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.

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