Monday, March 14, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 118, Memphis 85

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from Saturday's blowout of the Memphis Grizzlies.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (EWP48), a star player produces 0.200+ EWP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ EWP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:


The Heat Produced graphs have been updated to display the change in the Heat's average estimated wins produced per 48 minutes (EWP48) over the course of the season instead of the EWP48 for each individual game.  The graphs show the average EWP48 for the whole team, the starters and the reserves.

The graphs show a few interesting things:
  • The Heat starters averaged +0.200 est. WP48 for stretches when the team won 21 of 22 games from December to January.
  • The average est. WP48 for the Heat as a team has never dropped below 0.129 (it's currently 0.141). A team with a 0.129 est. WP48 would be expected to win 53 games and considered a borderline title contender as the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference.
  •  The bench production fell off a cliff after Udonis Haslem's injury and then bounced back in time for the Heat to win 21 of 22 games. After the first week of February, it fell off a cliff again, but bounced back against the LA Lakers and Grizzlies... just in time for another winning streak?

Without further ado, here's the spreadsheet with the estimated wins produced stats for the game against the Grizzlies, along with a few quick notes.

  • The Heat had their second most productive game of the season with an estimated 1.450 wins produced. The most estimated wins produced this season was 1.509 on November 2 against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
  • Dwyane Wade had the eighth most productive Heat game this season with an estimated 0.488 wins produced.  It was Wade's fourth highest total this season.
  • With 17 points on perfect shooting, four assists, two rebounds, no turnovers and no fouls, Mike Bibby had the 14th most productive Heat game this season with an estimated 0.436 wins produced.
  • Hot Hot Hoops Guest Writer Danny Martinez and I talked about the Heat defense destroying opposing point guards on a Sunday podcast. Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley was held to -0.245 estimated wins produced, the ninth lowest total this season by a Heat opponent.


You can find all of the Estimated Wins Produced stats for the Miami Heat this season on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.

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