Friday, March 18, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 85, Oklahoma City 96

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Heat's 11-point loss at home to the Thunder.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces 0.200+ Est.WP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Game Notes:
  • The Heat starters combined for -0.133 estimated wins produced. That was their third lowest total all season after the game in Denver without LeBron James and the first game in Boston.
  • LeBron had his third worst game of the season with -0.062 estimated wins produced. 
  • Chris Bosh had his 13th worst game of the season with -0.023 estimated wins produced.
  • The guard play in this game was terrible. 
    • The Average Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48) for point guards in the game was -2. For the season it's 5.5.
    • The Average WS48 for shooting guards in the game was 0.3. For the season it's 7.4.
  • Due to the bad shooting guard play, Thabo Sefolosha was the most productive player for the Thunder with 0.223 estimated wins produced in 22.9 minutes. Kevin Durant was the second most productive player with 0.212 estimated wins produced.
  • The least productive player for the Heat was Erick Dampier with -0.147 estimated wins produced.
  • Jamaal Magloire produced 0.323 est.WP48 with limited minutes. Dampier produced -0.514 est.WP48
  • Joel Anthony was the most productive Heat player with 0.176 estimated wins produced. It was his third best game this season. His best games came against the Bobcats on January 3 (0.324 est.WP) and the Hawks on January 18 (0.312 est.WP).
  • The second most productive Heat player was Mike Bibby with 0.175 estimated wins produced. The point guard play was so bad that 10 points, four rebounds and four fouls looked very good.
  • Thanks to The Warden and Bibby, the Heat bench (0.202 est.WP48) outplayed the Thunder bench (0.074 est.WP48).
  • The Heat only had above average production in one quarter vs the Thunder — the second quarter (of course, if you watched the game you already knew that). 
    • First quarter: 0.018 est.WP48
    • Second quarter: 0.246 est.WP48
    • Third quarter: -0.090 est.WP48
    • Fourth quarter: 0.004 est.WP48
  • At 51.5%, Eddie House and Mike Miller are shooting worse than Mario Chalmers (52.5%) this season. That's a problem.
  • Despite his solid production against the Thunder, Joel Anthony only makes three positive contributions to the boxscore: 
    • He's got a good chance of scoring when he shoots, which isn't often (2.9 shot attempts per 48 minutes) 
    • He doesn't turn the ball over when he catches it (which the fans know isn't often) 
    • He blocks shots. 
    • That's it. He doesn't do anything else well.

You can find all of the Estimated Wins Produced stats for the Miami Heat this season on the Heat Produced page.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from and

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