Friday, April 29, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami Finishes Sixers in Breakfast by the Bay


Before Game 5 against the Philadelphia 76ers, LeBron James said it was time for the Miami Heat to "finish their breakfast" and advance to the next round of the playoffs. Well, they did just that with a 97-91 win in Miami.

Let’s recap Game 5 as well as the series’ Most Valuable Player, Best Reserve, Best Coach and all of the wins produced stats.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:


Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics


Game 5 Statistical Notes:
This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced for Game 5 from the box score stats.


  • The most productive Heat player was Dwyane Wade with an estimated 0.307 wins produced from 26 points on 25 shots with six free throws, 11 rebounds and seven assists. It was his second-best game of the series.
  • The Tale of Two Cities article reported Chris Bosh’s splits at home and on the road after the first four games of this series (he was dominant at home and bad on the road). In Game 5 at the AAA, he was the second most productive Heat player with an estimated 0.249 wins produced from 22 points on 16 shots with 10 free throws, 11 rebounds and one steal. It was his second-best game of the series.
  • Mario Chalmers was the third-leading scorer and third most productive Heat player with an estimated 0.196 wins produced (0.306 est.WP48) from 20 points on 14 shots, two rebounds, two assists and zero turnovers. It was his best game of the series and seventh-best game of the season (see this spreadsheet for Chalmers’ top 10 games). The Heat are 10-3 when Chalmers produced more than 0.300 est.WP48 this season (see this spreadsheet for Chalmers’ +0.300 games).


  • The Heat played their best first quarter of the series with an estimated 0.260 wins produced. They averaged an estimated -0.011 wins produced in the first quarters of Games 1-4.
  • Unfortunately, a good first quarter meant the Heat couldn’t put together a good second quarter as they basically battled the 76ers to a draw with each team producing an estimated 0.007 wins.
  • This article reported the struggles of Dwyane Wade in the first quarter and LeBron James in the fourth quarter and asked which was more important for the Heat’s success - better starts for Wade or better finishes for LeBron. In Game 5, Wade produced 0.382 est. WP48 minutes in the first quarter and LeBron produced 0.413 est. WP48 minutes in the fourth quarter.
  • LeBron produced 0.511 est.WP48 in the second half after a terrible first half when he produced -0.253 est.WP48.
  • Lou Williams went from being the hero of Game 4 to the least productive Sixers player in Game 5 with an estimated -0.284 wins produced from four points on eight shots with one free throw, two turnovers and one foul.
  • Elton Brand was the most productive Sixers player with an estimated 0.259 wins produced from 22 points on 17 shots with two free throws, six rebounds and two assists. It was his second-best game of the series.
  • Andre Iguodala was the least productive Sixers player after the first four games, but he came with it in the elimination game. He was the second-most productive Sixer with an estimated 0.229 wins produced from 22 points on 14 shots with four free throws, 10 rebounds and four assists.

Series Awards:
  • Most Valuable Player - The most productive Heat player in the series was LeBron with an estimated 1.2 wins produced and 0.276 est.WP48. He was above average in every category except shooting efficiency and steals.
  • Sixth Man - James Jones was the most productive Heat reserve with an estimated 0.3 wins produced and 0.136 est.WP48. He was above average in shooting efficiency and turnovers and below average in every other category at small forward, but he played three different positions during the series (SG, SF and PF).
  • Best Coach - Erik Spoelstra. For all the talk about Sixers head coach Doug Collins out-coaching Spoelstra, Collins only gave 53 percent of the available minutes to the most productive Sixers while Spoelstra gave 90 percent of the available minutes to the most productive Heat players.

Series Statistical Notes:
This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced by the Heat from the box score stats for the series.


  • The Heat scored an average of 107 points per 100 possessions and allowed 98 points per 100 possessions for an efficiency differential of +9. According to nbastuffer.com, that’s the second-best efficiency differential in the playoffs behind the Boston Celtics’ +9.3.
  • The Three Kings provided 84 percent of the Heat’s production in the series.
  • Wade was the second-most productive player with an estimated 1.0 wins produced and 0.254 est.WP48. He was above average in every category except shooting efficiency and turnovers.
  • Bosh was the third-most productive player with an estimated 0.8 wins produced and 0.196 est.WP48. He was above average in every category except shot attempts, turnovers and assists.
  • The least productive Heat player in the series was Mike Bibby with an estimated -0.3 wins produced and -0.124 est.WP48. Bibby was below average in every category except rebounds, blocks and fouls. He had a terrible series and deserved to be benched in the second half of Game 5.
  • Unlike Bibby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas was very productive in the series with an estimated 0.5 wins produced and 0.338 est.WP48. Big Z’s offensive production and Joel Anthony’s defense helped the Heat outplay the Sixers in the middle with 0.125 est.WP48 from Miami’s centers compared to 0.075 est.WP48 for Philadelphia’s centers.
  • Slow starts and shaky finishes were common occurrences for the Heat in this series. Eighty-nine percent of the Heat’s production against the Sixers came in the second and third quarters of the series.
  • 92 percent of LeBron’s production, 70 percent of Wade’s production and 88 percent of Bosh’s production came in those two quarters (see this spreadsheet).


This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced by the Sixers from the box score stats for the series.


  • Brand was the most productive Sixer in the series with an estimated 0.9 wins produced and 0.225 est.WP48. Jrue Holiday was second with an estimated 0.8 wins produced and 0.215 est.WP48.
  • Only half of Doug Collins’ nine-player rotation made positive contributions in the series — Brand, Holiday, Evan Turner, Tony Battie and Jodie Meeks.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Post a Comment