Saturday, May 14, 2011

Heat Check: Back-and-Forth over Heat-Bulls with Big Shot Ron

Monster of the double entendre...

A fellow blogger and Bulls fan, Big Shot Ron, sent over five points on the Eastern Conference Finals (or as LeBron would call it, "dinner") that outlined why the Bulls would win and asked for my counterpoints. You can check out Ron’s points at his blog and my counter points below.

To: Big Shot Ron (
From: Reservoir God

You're right about one thing, Ron - this is how it should be. The only things that could make this playoff run better for the Miami Heat would have been beating the New York Knicks in the first round and then have the Los Angeles Lakers waiting for them in the NBA Finals after running through the Chicago Bulls. That's right, I said it, "Running through the Chicago Bulls." Let me address your five points to illustrate how it will be done...

1. Who cares about the 4th man? One of the biggest myths in the NBA is that depth matters. The Pareto Principle rules the NBA. Eighty percent of wins in the league are produced by 20 percent of the players, which means three players on each team. The Spurs, Celtics and Lakers just dominated the previous era of the NBA with three players and it will be no different for the Three Kings in Miami. Of course, I understand why Bulls fans would want to dismiss this notion — it doesn't work so well for their team. But if Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh aren't enough for you to worry about, then I'll give you two more players that could be the fourth man to keep Tom Thibodeau up at night - Mario Chalmers and Joel "The Warden" Anthony. I'll address Chalmers a little later so let's focus on The Warden for now. He was the fourth most productive Heat player in the Eastern Conference Semifinals and he'll give Carlos Boozer nightmares when he locks him down in the Eastern Conference Finals.

2. Spoelstra > Thibs, but coaches rarely matter: Coaching is one of the most overrated factors in basketball. Yes, Thibodeau was anointed Coach of the Year by the Dead Basketball Poets Society, but the fact of the matter is that he had little to do with that. The players on the Bulls' roster performed just as well as they did last season when Thibodeau wasn't their coach. The exception is Derrick Rose, who improved because that's what young players do. The only thing coaches have a direct impact on is how many minutes their players gets. Thibs only gave 61 percent of the available minutes to the most productive Bulls players at each position (PG - Rose, SG - Brewer, SF - Deng, PF - Gibson, C - Noah). Spoelstra played his five best players for 73 percent of the minutes available (PG - Chalmers, SG - Wade, SF - James, PF - Bosh, C - Anthony). Thibs' 10-player rotation is about two players too long and will cost the Bulls in this series.

3. Welcome to The Bosh Pit: Bosh just finished going toe-to-toe with Kevin Garnett and outplayed him. KG's a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. Boozer? He's just a two-time all-star with a measly seven percent chance to make the Hall of Fame. Bosh will be up to the challenge, but it won't be coming from Boozer. He'll have to get it done with Joakim Noah guarding him. Noah's a great defender, but as my man Alfredo Arteaga said on the Miami Heat Talk podcast, KG may be the best defensive power forward of all-time. And if you think he's washed up, well, he finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and second in Defensive Win Shares. Joakim Noah finished 15th in the DPoY voting and 28th in Defensive Win Shares. Bosh will roar in this series.

4. Who will stop Rose? Three words - Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk: Chalmers has had Rose's number ever since he sank a cold-blooded three in his face after Rose choked at the free throw line with the 2008 National Championship at stake. Win Score is the statistical model I use to measure player performance. It gives players credit for points, rebounds, steals, assists and blocks and debits them for turnovers, fouls and missed shots. Based on Win Score, Chalmers has outplayed Rose six times in nine head-to-head matchups. If you don't like Win Score we can use the NBA Efficiency rating. tracks head-to-head matchups for all players based on the NBA Efficiency rating used by Chalmers had a higher NBA Efficiency rating than Rose in five of their nine matchups and tied with him once. Chalmers is the easy answer to the question, "who will play Rose?" He'll go under screens and the Heat will force Rose to shoot over the top. The question is whether Rose will be able to match Chalmers jumper-for-jumper. According to, Rose shot 38 percent from 16-23 feet and his shooting efficiency from three-point land was 49.8 percent. Chalmers shot 45 percent from 16-23 feet and his shooting efficiency behind the arc was 53.9 percent.

5. It's Oprah's house, the Bulls are just visiting: You don't believe the Heat can beat the Bulls in the United Center? Didn't I just see the mediocre Atlanta Hawks walk out of there with a win almost two weeks ago? Surely you believe the Heat are a better team than the Hawks. It may be tough to book a date in the United Center (unless you work for Harpo Studios), but I don't see the Heat having a problem winning there. As for the Bulls winning in Miami, there are only two teams left in the playoffs that are undefeated at home - the Heat and the Mavericks.

Prediction: Miami in 6


  1. how do you feel about Arturo saying the Heat will lose?

  2. I'm working on my numbers preview now... I think this - - sums up how I feel about Arturo's prediction. I also think Arturo's system could be flawed by focusing on post-ASG performance.

  3. the thing is arturo's numbers have worked with the mavs and grizzlies. If he was wrong with those, I'd be good, but he's been right. If you consider that he made a mistake by not considering superstar calls in the thunder-nuggets series and that atlanta actually got outscored by the magic in that series, arturo's numbers have done an excellent job.

    Also, looking at the minute allocation, the bulls players have outplayed the heat in the regular season, post asg, and in the playoffs (although against worst competition). Also, the bulls have homecourt advantage.

  4. Good for Arturo, but his numbers aren't infallible. The Heat had the higher efficiency differential in the regular season despite Spo's experiments w/ the lineup. The Heat have outperformed expectations in the playoffs against tougher competition while the Bulls have underperformed against weaker competition. I like the Heat's chances.

  5. I did consider that the bulls have underperformed while the Heat have exceeded expectations. Trust me when I say i'm rooting for the heat (i'm EntityAbyss in the rest of the WoW blogs, but I can't use it on this one). I'm just nervous.

  6. New post up to give you some hope before tipoff -