Friday, May 6, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 102, Boston 91 in Game 2 of East Semis

Bosh was a beast on both ends in Game 2
(Photo taken from

The playoff stats on the Heat Produced Page were updated after Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. A link to the updated page and stats were posted on Twitter, but I forgot to post them here.

Let's rectify that mistake...

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Celtics-Heat Game 2 Statistical Notes
This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced stats for Game 2 from the box score stats and the bullets below breakdown the game twitter-style, in 140 characters or less.

  • I didn't even know Von Wafer played in the game until I looked at the box score. Why? Because he did NOTHING. It looks like the 10 points in 14 minutes he scored in Boston on February 13 were just a result of this.
  • "Tail between his legs?" Chris Bosh was the most productive player in Game 2 and had his third best game of the season with an estimated 0.420 wins produced from 17 points on 10 shots and 11 free throw attempts, 11 rebounds, four assists, two blocks, one steal, two turnovers and one foul while holding Kevin Garnett to 16 points on 40 percent shooting, six rebounds and five fouls.
  • After two games, the most productive Heat player in the series is Bosh with 0.298 est.WP48 and 0.5 estimated wins produced. See this spreadsheet for a summary of the Heat's estimated wins produced stats for the series.
  • This spreadsheet lists Bosh's Top five games this season, by estimated wins produced: 
    • 0.501 vs PHI 4/18, 
    • 0.455 vs PHO 11/17, 
    • 0.420 vs BOS 5/3, 
    • 0.378 vs SAC 2/22 and 
    • 0.378 vs SAS 3/14
  • The second most productive player in Game 2 was LeBron James with an estimated 0.246 wins produced from 35 points on 25 shots, 8 free throw attempts, seven rebounds and zero turnovers.
  • Game 2 was the 18th time Bosh had 0.300+ est.WP48 and LeBron had 0.200+ est.WP48. The Heat are 18-0 when that happens (see this spreadsheet).
  • The least productive player in Game 2 was Mario Chalmers with an estimated -0.181 wins produced from three points on five shots, two turnovers and two fouls.
  • Joel "The Warden" Anthony produced an estimated 0.185 wins in Game 2 (third most on the Heat) from six points on two shots and four free throw attempts, five rebounds and three blocks.
  • Dwyane Wade produced an estimated 0.149 wins (fourth best on the Heat) from 28 points on 20 shots and 13 free throw attempts with eight rebounds, three assists and four turnovers.
  • The least productive Celtics player was KG with an estimated -0.086 wins produced from 16 points on 20 shots and zero free throw attempts, six rebounds, two turnovers and five fouls.
  • The most productive Celtics player was Jeff Green with an estimated 0.190 wins produced from 11 points on six shots and two free throw attempts, four rebounds and two steals.
  • The second most productive Celtics player was Jermaine O'Neal with an estimated 0.150 wins produced from eight points on seven shots and five free throw attempts, nine rebounds and one block.
  • The Heat's Three Kings produced an estimated 0.815 wins. The Celtics' Big Three produced an estimated -0.114 wins.
  • Mike Bibby produced an estimated 0.071 wins while Rajon Rondo produced an estimated 0.012 wins.
  • Bibby had two blocks in Game 2 and is averaging 1.3 blocks per 48 minutes in the playoffs. He averaged 0.3 blocks per 48 minutes in the regular season.
  • The Heat and Celtics played to a draw in the first and third quarters with an estimated 0.443 wins produced each. In the second and fourth quarters, the Heat produced an estimated 0.342 wins and the Celtics produced an estimated -0.229 wins.
  • The Heat were led in the second quarter by Bosh (0.205 est. WP from four points, seven rebounds) and Wade (0.136 est. WP from 10 points, three rebounds).
  • The Heat were led in the fourth quarter by LeBron (0.157 est. WP from 12 points on six shots, three rebounds) and Bosh (0.103 est. WP from six points on two shots, two rebounds).
  • LeBron played the entire second half and produced an estimated 0.365 wins produced for an est.WP48 of 0.730. That's 7.3 times better than an average player.
  • Wade and Bosh produced an estimated 0.479 wins in the first half. LeBron and Bosh produced an estimated 0.541 wins in the second half. Two halves, Three Kings.
  • After two games, the Heat are winning three of five positions against the Celtics, according to est.WP48: Power Forward (0.243), Small Forward (0.217) and Shooting Guard (0.213). Two words: Three Kings.
  • Heat starters produced 0.781 estimated wins in Game 2. Celtic starters produced 0.048 estimated wins. The Heat bench produced an estimated 0.005 wins and the Celtics bench produced an estimated 0.166 wins.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from and

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