Monday, May 9, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 81, Boston 97 in Game 3


The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in Boston. After losing by 16-points, this series has become almost dead even. After the mainstream media called the Celtics too old and slow for the Heat, they gave the Heat a critical beatdown on Saturday night that statistically evened the series as they head into Game 4 tonight.

How close has the series become? Here’s a quick rundown:
  • The Heat have only outscored the Celtics by four points.
  • The Heat have scored 105 points per 100 possessions and allowed 105 points per 100 possessions.
  • The Heat have produced an estimated 1.6 wins in three games. The Celtics have produced an estimated 1.4 wins in three games.

How did the series become so even? Let’s take a look at the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores for Game 3 and the series.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics



Game 3 Heat Player Notes:
This spreadsheet provides the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score.


  • Players that showed up last night (based on estimated Wins Produced): 
  • LeBron James also made a positive contribution with 0.027 est. wins produced. Every other Heat player provided sub-zero production.
  • LeBron is only providing 50 percent of his regular season production in this series. In the regular season, he produced 0.274 est.WP48. He’s producing 0.136 est.WP48 after the first three games in this series. He averaged 0.154 est.WP48 in the regular season vs. Celtics.
  • Chalmers had his most productive game of the season in Game 3 with 0.411 est. Wins Produced and 0.641 est.WP48.
  • Game 3 was Chalmers' second +0.300 est.WP48 game against the Celtics and his 14th of the season, as this spreadsheet illustrates. The Heat are 10-4 in those games and he played an average of 27 minutes in them.


  • Before the season started, Dan LeBatard said playing with the Three Kings would turn Chalmers into Rondo. After three games in this series, Chalmers (0.096 est.WP48, 0.2 est. wins produced) has been more productive than Rondo (0.012 est.WP48, 0.0 est. wins produced).
  • LeBatard also said that Joel Anthony would become Kendrick Perkins playing with this Heat team. Well, he had his fourth best game of the season with 0.197 est.WP and 0.258 est.WP48. Three of his Top 10 games have come against the Celtics, as this spreadsheet illustrates.


  • Mike Bibby was the least productive of five Heat players with negative productivity. He produced an estimated -0.235 wins.
  • Chalmers, Anthony, Wade and LeBron produced an estimated 0.821 wins in Game 3. Miller, Jones, Bosh, Z and Bibby produced an estimated -0.650 wins.
  • Chris Bosh played with a pinched nerve in his neck and produced -0.141 estimated wins produced from six points on six shots and four free throw attempts with five rebounds.

Game 3 Celtics Player Notes
This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced stats for the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.


  • Kevin Garnett had the second best game of any Heat opponent this season with an estimated 0.575 wins produced from 28 points on 20 shots and two free throw attempts with 18 rebounds and two steals.
  • KG finished right behind the 0.578 est.wins produced by Jared Dudley on 12/23/2010. Dudley had 33 points on 16 shots with six free throw attempoints, 12 rebounds and three steals. This spreadsheet lists the Top 10 performances by Heat opponents this season.


  • Shaquille O'Neal returned to the Celtics' lineup and was the least productive player with -0.088 est. wins produced in 8.5 minutes played.
  • Shaq had zero rebounds and zero blocked shots in 8.5 minutes of playing time. Paint presence? I don’t think so.
  • Paul Pierce was the second most productive Celtic with 0.301 est.WP from 27 points on 20 shots and 4 free throw attempts with five rebounds, five assists and two steals.
  • The Celtics only had two players with above average production in Game 3: KG and Pierce.
  • Only three Celtics have provided above average production in the series (i.e. est.WP48 > 0.100): KG (0.272), Pierce, (0.153) and J. O’Neal (0.105).
  • After dislocating his left elbow, Rondo produced 0.243 est.WP48 in the fourth quarter from four points on two shots, one rebound and one assist.

Game 3 Heat Team Notes:
This spreadsheet provides the Heat Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores for the Eastern Conferene Semifinals.


  • The Heat’s Three Kings produced 0.072 estimated wins and the Celtics Big Three produced 0.927 estimated wins. I doubt the Heat can win any game when the Three Kings get outplayed.
  • Seventy-eight percent of the Heat’s production has come from Wade, LeBron and Bosh (1.3 estimated wins produced). Eighty-six percent of the Celtics’ production has come from Garnett, Pierce and Allen (1.2 estimated wins produced).
  • After Garnett’s domination of Bosh in Game 3, the Heat are losing the battle at three positions (based on est.WP48) - center (0.083), power forward (0.072), point guard (0.061). The Heat are winning the matchups at shooting guard (0.173) and small forward (0.150)
  • The Heat outplayed the Celtics in the second quarter with 0.412 est.WP vs -0.091 for the Celtics. The Heat played the rest of the game with an estimated efficiency differential of -36 points per 100 possessions.
  • Eighty-four percent of the Heat’s production has come in the first half. Eighty-six percent of the Celtics production has come in the second half.

Heat Lineup Notes:
Most of the blame for Game 3 was placed on keeping Bibby and Zydrunas Ilgauskas in the starting lineup over Mario Chalmers and Joel Anthony. This spreadsheet provides the efficiency differential for Heat lineups in the playoffs.


  • Here’s the game-by-game breakdown of their per-minute production in the series (i.e. est.WP48):
    • Game 1: Bibby -0.022, Chalmers -0.164; Big Z -0.408, Warden 0.039
    • Game 2: Bibby 0.127, Chalmers -0.413; Big Z -0.467, Warden 0.258
    • Game 3: Bibby -0.657, Chalmers 0.641; Big Z -0.318, Warden 0.258
  • The Heat are 2-5 when The Warden produces +0.300 est.WP48 and plays more than 15 minutes. They are 8-7 when he produces +0.200 est.WP48.
  • Lineups with Bibby and Big Z have played 100 minutes in playoffs with an efficiency differential of -37.5. Those lineups would go winless over 82 games.
  • Lineups with Bibby and Big Z have played 26 percent of the Heat's playoff minutes.
  • Lineups with Bibby and Big Z played 118.5 minutes with an efficiency differential of -3.4 in the regular season.
  • Lineups with Chalmers and The Warden have played 180.2 minutes in the playoffs with an efficiency differential of +22.8, which would translate to an undefeated season if they played every minute in an 82-game season.
  • Lineups with Chalmers and The Warden have played 47 percent of the Heat's playoff minutes.
  • In 642.5 minutes of the regular season, those lineups had an efficiency differential of +6.5, which would translate to 58 wins if they played every minute of an 82-game season.
  • Lineups with the Three Kings have played 232.5 minutes with an efficiency differential of -0.2 that would translate to 40 wins if they played every minute of an 82-game season.
  • Lineups with the Three Kings have played 61 percent of the Heat's playoff minutes.
  • In the regular season, lineups with the Three Kings played 1,916 minutes with an efficiency differential of +15 (translates to an 80-win season).
  • Heat starters produced an estimated -0.227 wins in Game 3. Celtics starters produced an estimated 0.877 wins.
  • Heat bench produced an estimated 0.398 wins in Game 3. Celtics bench produced an estimated -0.048 wins.
As far as what to expect in Game 4, I think everything posted here still applies.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.

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