Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 98, Boston 90 in Game 4


The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in Boston. The Three Kings put the Heat back in the driver’s seat after they let the Celtics close the gap in Game 3. The Heat can eliminate the Celtics from the playoffs Wednesday night in Miami.

How did the Heat put themselves in this favorable position after getting blown out in Game 3 (their 11th consecutive loss in Boston)? Let’s take a look at the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores for Game 4.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics


Game 4 Player Notes
This spreadsheet contains the Wins Produced stats estimated from the Game 4 box score.


  • Chris Bosh said he was “happy to push the reset button” after playing his third worst game of the season in Game 3. He did just that and played his eighth-best game of the season in Game 4 with an estimated 0.350 wins produced from 20 points on 17 shots and five free throw attempts with 12 rebounds and two steals while holding Kevin Garnett of the Celtics to seven points on 10 shots and six free throw attempts with 10 rebounds, two turnovers and five fouls. Bosh’s performance surpassed his Christmas Day game against Pau Gasol and the Lakers when he posted 24 points and 13 rebounds.


  • Game 4 was Bosh’s first good game on the road in the playoffs (i.e. est.WP48>0.100). Here’s his production in the first three road games of the playoffs:
    • 4/21/11 at Philadelphia: 0.032 est.WP48
    • 4/23/11 at Philadelphia: -0.145 est.WP48
    • 5/7/11 at Boston: -0.223 est.WP48
  • Alfredo Arteaga predicted a big game from LeBron James in Boston on the last Miami Heat Podcast and he delivered. He was the second-most productive Heat player in the game with an estimated 0.288 wins produced from 35 points on 28 shots and nine free throw attempts with 14 rebounds, three steals and five turnovers.
  • Dwyane Wade was the third-most productive Heat player with an estimated 0.169 wins produced from 28 points on 18 shots and 14 free throw attempts with nine rebounds, four assists, three turnovers and four fouls.
  • Joel Anthony was put back in the starting lineup by Coach Erik Spoelstra, but got off to a slower start than usual. The Warden only produced an estimated 0.016 wins in the first half of Game 4 compared to the 0.219 estimated wins he produced in the first half of Game 3. He ended with 0.109 estimated wins produced in Game 4.
  • Mike Bibby remained in the starting lineup but was still ineffective. In fact, he was the least productive Heat player with an estimated -0.119 wins produced.
  • Mario Chalmers had his third consecutive good game in Boston with 0.153 est.WP48. He battled Delonte West (0.160 est.WP48) to a virtual standstill.
  • Udonis Haslem only produced -0.094 estimated wins in his return to the Heat lineup for 2.8 minutes of playing time.
  • Least productive Celtics player was Glen Davis with an estimated -0.127 wins produced from four points on four shots and two free throw attempts with zero rebounds, one turnover and three fouls.
  • Most productive Celtics player was Jermaine “I Commit Flagrant Fouls Because I Can’t Move My Legs” O’Neal with an estimated 0.143 wins produced from eight points on six shots and two free throw attempts, four rebounds, two assists and one steal. When Jermaine O’Neal was the most productive player on the team, you know the Celtics had a rough night.
  • Second-most productive Celtics player was Paul Pierce with an estimated 0.128 wins produced from 27 points on 20 shots and seven free throw attempts with eight rebounds, four turnovers and four fouls.
  • Rajon Rondo was productive through the first three quarters of the game with an estimated 0.160 wins produced from eight points on four shots and two free throw attempts with five assists and two rebounds. He only produced an estimated -0.094 estimated wins in the fourth quarter and overtime from two points on three shots and one foul.

Game 4 Team Notes
  • Troubles in crunch time? Not for the Heat - that’s where they won the game.
  • Heat produced an estimated 0.393 wins in the fourth quarter and overtime compared to an estimated -0.277 wins produced by the Celtics.
  • Heat only produced an estimated 0.297 wins through the first three quarters compared to an estimated 0.587 wins produced by the Celtics.
  • Bosh and LeBron combined to provide 73 percent of the Heat’s production in the fourth quarter and overtime with 22 points and nine rebounds between them.
  • This spreadsheet lists the production of Heat players in the fourth quarters of this series.


  • The Heat’s Three Kings produced an estimated 0.807 wins while the Celtics’ Big Three only produced an estimated 0.194 wins.
  • The Heat outplayed the Celtics at four positions when they won the first two games and they did the same in this win. Here’s what the Heat produced at each position (based on est.WP48, an est.WP48 > 0.100 means the Heat won the position battle):
    • Point Guard: -0.068
    • Shooting Guard: 0.160
    • Small Forward: 0.173
    • Power Forward: 0.208
    • Center: 0.153
  • Heat starters produced an estimated 0.797 wins. Celtics starters produced an estimated 0.403 wins.
  • Heat reserves produced an estimated -0.107 wins. Celtics reserves produced an estimated -0.093 wins.

Heat Eastern Conference Semifinals Notes
This spreadsheet contains the Heat Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores for the series.


  • The Three Kings have produced an estimated 90 percent of the Heat’s wins in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
    • D Wade: 0.7 est. Wins Produced
    • C Bosh: 0.7 est. Wins Produced
    • L James: 0.6 est. Wins Produced
  • There was a Half-Baked Notion put forth on the Wages of Wins Network that a team’s top six players produce 90 percent of its wins in the playoffs. The six-most productive Heat players have produced an estimated 2.9 wins and Spoelstra has played them 84 percent of the available minutes. Despite all the fan frenzy about rotations and lineups, Spoelstra has done a good job giving minutes to the most productive players - Wade, Bosh, LeBron, The Warden, Chalmers and Jones.
  • The Heat are outplaying the Celtics at every position except point guard in this series. Chalmers (0.111 est.WP48) has been more productive than Rondo (0.030 est.WP48), but Bibby (-0.162 est.WP48) has been so terrible in the 44 percent of point guard minutes he’s played that the Heat are losing that matchup. I think Spoelstra wants to limit his minutes but Chalmers’ foul trouble prevented him from doing that in Game 4.
  • The Heat are shooting better against the Celtics (49 percent) than they did against the 76ers in the first round (46 percent), but Wade, Anthony, Chalmers and Jones are the only players shooting above 50 percent in the series. Of those four players, only Wade is averaging more than 10 shots per 48 minutes.


Celtics Eastern Conference Semifinals Notes
This spreadsheet contains the Celtics Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores for the series.


  • The Big Three have produced an estimated 81 percent of the Celtics’ wins in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
    • K Garnett: 0.7 est. Wins Produced
    • P Pierce: 0.5 est. Wins Produced
    • R Allen: 0.2 est. Wins Produced
  • KG has increased his production in this series (0.228 est.WP48) from the regular season (0.132 est.WP48).
  • Pierce has also increased his production in this series (0.148 est.WP48) from the regular season (0.060 est.WP48).
  • Allen was the most productive Celtics player vs. the Heat in the regular season with 0.261 est.WP48. He has only produced 0.054 est.WP48 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
  • The Celtics’ top six players have produced an estimated 2 wins and Coach Doc Rivers has played them 81 percent of the team’s available minutes.
  • Delonte West’s production has been slightly above average in this series with 0.116 est.WP48, but it hasn’t been enough to make up for Rondo’s injuries. Rondo produced 0.259 est.WP48 against the Heat in the regular season.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.

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