Monday, May 2, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 99, Boston Celtics 90

How did the Heat beat the Celtics in Game 1? As Nas said, "It Ain't Hard To Tell."

Alfredo Arteaga from said on this week's Miami Heat Podcast that he expected complete and utter domination by Dwyane Wade in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Well, Wade didn't come out with complete domination, but he did play like a superstar in Game 1 against the Celtics with 38 points and five assists.

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with the stats from Game 1. Let's run through the numbers...

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Celtics-Heat Game One Statistical Notes
This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced for Game 1 from the box score stats.

  • The most productive Heat player in Game 1 was James Jones with an estimated 0.366 wins produced from 25 points on seven shots and 10 free throw attempts with three rebounds. It was his best game of the season. His previous high was an estimated 0.346 wins produced in New York against the Knicks on January 27 when he started in place of Chris Bosh. Jones scored 15 points on nine shots and grabbed five rebounds.

  • Jones took 10 free throws in Game 1. Half of them were from defensive three seconds violations, a flagrant foul and a technical foul. The most free throws he previously attempted in a game this season was five.
  • Second most productive Heat player was Wade with an estimated 0.246 wins produced from 38 points on 21 shots and nine free throw attempts with five assists, two blocks and three steals
  • LeBron James was merely average with 0.103 est.WP48 from 22 points on 19 shots and nine free throw attempts, six rebounds, five assists, two blocks and two steals.
  • Chris Bosh was below average with 0.068 est.WP48 from seven points on 10 shots and two free throw attempts, 12 rebounds, one block, one steal, three turnovers and four fouls.
  • It was a "Tale of Two Cities" for Bosh vs. Elton Brand in the last series and a "Tale of Two Halves" for him vs. KG. Bosh had -0.316 est.WP48 in the first half and 0.388 est.WP48 in the second half.
  • Least productive Heat player in Game 1 was Zydrunas Ilgauskas with an estimated -0.106 wins produced from zero points on two shots, four rebounds, three turnovers and three fouls.
  • Least productive Celtic in Game 1 was Jeff Green with an estimated -0.090 wins produced from nine points on eight shots and three free throw attempts, zero rebounds, one block, one steal and two turnovers.
  • Most productive Celtic was Ray Allen with an estimated 0.201 wins produced from 25 points on 13 shots and two free throw attempts, three rebounds, three assists, one steal and four fouls.
  • Second most productive Celtic was Kevin Garnett with an estimated 0.145 wins produced from six points on nine shots, eight rebounds, three assists, two blocks, one steal and three fouls.
  • Rajon Rondo was literally a non-factor. He produced an estimated 0 wins from eight points on 10 shots and two free throw attempts, seven rebounds, seven assists, three steals, five turnovers and four fouls.
  • Celtics produced an estimated -0.230 wins in the first quarter. They got more productive as the game went along, but the Heat put them in too big a deficit to climb out of by the end of the game. The Heat had 0.089 estimated wins produced in the first quarter and piled on in the second quarter with an estimated 0.459 wins produced to the Celtics 0.089.
  • The Heat's Three Kings produced an estimated 0.383 wins (58 percent of the team's production). The Celtics' Big Three produced an estimated 0.372 wins and the supporting cast only produced an estimated -0.032 wins.
  • Heat starters produced an estimated 0.267 wins. The Heat bench produced an estimated 0.393 wins. Celtic starters produced an estimated 0.419 wins. The Celtics bench produced an estimated -0.079 wins.
  • Jones (0.620 est.WP48) and Mike Miller (0.466 est.WP48) were the only Heat above average reserves.
  • There are only 0.200 estimated wins available at each position in any game. The Heat won four out of five positions in Game 1: 
    • Point Guard — 0.117 est. wins produced
    • Shooting Guard — 0.209 est. wins produced
    • Small Forward — 0.226 est. wins produced
    • Power Forward — 0.193 est. wins produced
  • The Heat won the point guard battle despite Mario Chalmers and Mike Bibby both being below average because Wade played 5.6 minutes at point guard in the second quarter and produced an estimated 0.199 wins from 10 points on four shots.
  • The Celtics dominated the Heat at center in Game 1 with an estimated 0.285 wins produced from 15 points with 56 percent shooting, 10 rebounds, one steal, one turnover, two assists and seven fouls.
  • Heat centers produced an estimated -0.085 wins from four points on four free throws, zero percent shooting, nine rebounds, five turnovers, two blocks, one assist and seven fouls.
  • The most productive Heat players based on estimated wins produced by position: 
    • PG — Wade (0.2 est.WP)
    • SG — Jones (0.2 est.WP) 
    • SF — LeBron (0.2 est.WP)
    • PF — Bosh (0.1 est.WP)
    • C — Joel (0.0 est.WP)

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from and

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