Sunday, June 5, 2011

Heat Check: How Resilient are the Miami Heat?


After blowing a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Dallas Mavericks, it seems the biggest question facing the Miami Heat is, "How resilient are they?" In fact, this question was posed by a listener during yesterday's Miami Heat Talk podcast:

From: @fesnard
Sent: Jun 4, 2011 12:08p

@MIA_Heat_Index here's a question: What's the Heat record with more than 1 day off after a loss this season?

sent via Seesmic Desktop in reply to @MIA_Heat_Index
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/fesnard/status/77044079812292608

Let's take a look at the numbers to see how resilient the Heat have been this season.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics




The short answer is that the Heat were 4-2 with 2+ days of rest after a loss this season. This spreadsheet lists those games.


The Heat outscored their opponents by 5.9 points per 100 possessions in those six games, which translates to an estimated four wins. This spreadsheet  lists the Wins Produced stats estimated for the players from the box scores in games after a loss with 2+ days of rest.


LeBron James and Dwyane Wade posted their regular season averages in those six games and Chris Bosh was slightly more productive than usual. Bosh season average was 0.177 est.WP48 but with more than one day's rest after a loss he produced 0.198 est.WP48. Mike Miller was nearly twice as productive coming off a  loss with more than a day's rest and everyone else in the playoff rotation provided their normal performance like Wade and LeBron.

"We've been a pretty resilient bunch all year," Heat forward Udonis Haslem said. "We've bounced back every time we've been knocked down. I'm expecting the same thing with this situation."
Read more: http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/06/04/2251162_p2/heat-shake-off-collapse-say-theyre.html#ixzz1OPOxpj73

The numbers say UD's correct. 

In the NBA Finals so far, LeBron has only produced 0.175 est.WP48. If he can be as resilient as he's been all season and post his average numbers, then the Heat will be just fine in Game 3 tonight.

Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.

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