Saturday, June 4, 2011

Heat Produced: One King Was Not Enough in Game 2 of NBA Finals



Dwyane Wade showed up in Game 2 but LeBron James and Chris Bosh didn't. One king was not enough as the Miami Heat blew a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter and the Dallas Mavericks won Game 2 to tie the NBA Finals at one game apiece as they head home for the next three games.

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with wins produced stats estimated from the box scores for the series, so let’s take a look at the numbers and see what happened.


This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Game Two Notes:
This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score for Game 1 of the 2011 NBA Finals.



  • After feeling each other out with defense in Game 1, both teams came out with offense in Game 2. The first quarter offensive efficiency for both teams increased by over 30 points per 100 possessions in Game 2 after their Game 1 output set the record for lowest points scored in the first quarter of Game 1 for an NBA Finals (33) since the introduction of the shot clock. The first quarter of Game 2 ended 28-28. 
  • Mike Bibby was the most productive player in the first quarter with an estimated 0.143 wins produced in 10.1 minutes (0.680 est.WP48) from six points on three shots with two steals. Bibby was 0-8 from the floor in his last two games combined and his shooting efficiency in the playoffs was 32.5%, so his shot-making was well overdue. 
  • The defense kicked in for the second quarter and both teams’ offensive efficiency was held below 100 points per 100 possessions. The quarter ended in a 51-51 tie. 
  • Dwyane Wade almost singlehandedly kept the Heat in the second quarter with an estimated 0.194 wins produced in 10.1 minutes (0.920 est.WP48) from 13 points scored on seven shots and four free throw attempts with two rebounds, two steals, one block and one turnover. Wade had gone three quarters (28.6 minutes) without a turnover. 
  • The Heat outscored the Mavs by 21 points per 100 possessions in the third quarter but it only resulted in a four point lead. The Mavs outrebounded the Heat 11-6 in the quarter and grabbed four offensive rebounds that resulted in five second chance points to keep them in the game. 
  • Dirk Nowitzki came alive in the third quarter to keep the Mavs in the game with an estimated 0.198 wins produced in 11 minutes (0.864 est.WP48) from six points on five shots with seven rebounds and one blocked shot. Dirk was terrible in the first half with an estimated -0.108 wins produced in 19.1 minutes (-0.271 est.WP48) from nine points on 10 shots and three free throw attempts with just one rebound and two turnovers. 
  • Bibby was the most productive Heat player on the floor with an estimated 0.139 wins produced in 12 minutes (0.554 est.WP48) from eight points on five shots with one rebound and two steals. Bibby was the second-most productive player in the game with an estimated 0.282 wins produced in 22.1 minutes (0.612 est.WP48). Game 2 of the NBA Finals was Bibby’s second-best game for the Heat (in terms of Estimated Wins Produced) and his best game in the playoffs this season. 
  • This spreadsheet lists Bibby’s top five games for the Heat this season, by estimated wins produced. The Heat record was 2-3 in Bibby’s five best games this season.




    • This spreadsheet lists the estimated wins produced by Bibby in the 2011 playoff run. He has only played above average five times in 17 games and his production has been below zero in 10 games. 



    • The Heat headed into the fourth quarter with an estimated 0.539 wins produced. They would have to get outscored by at least 17 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter to lose the game at that point. Well, the Mavs outscored the Heat by 22.1 points per 100 possessions and won the game by two points. The Mavs defense held the Heat to their second-worst offensive quarter in the series by reducing their offensive efficiency to just 82.5 points per 100 possessions. The Heat averaged 111.7 points per 100 possessions this season, according to basketball-reference.com
    • Wade led the Heat went on a 13-0 early in the fourth quarter to take a 15-point lead with 7:14 left. He was the most productive Heat player in the fourth quarter with an estimated 0.099 wins produced in 12 minutes (0.394 est.WP48) from nine points on five shots and four free throw attempts with two rebounds and one steal. Unfortunately, Wade didn’t score in the last 7:14 and the Heat wasted his most productive game of the playoffs and ninth-best game of the season. 
    • Wade was the most productive player in Game 2 with an estimated 0.429 wins produced in 42.2 minutes (0.488 est.WP48) from 36 points on 20 shots and 12 free throw attempts with five rebounds, six assists, two blocks, three steals, one turnover and two fouls. 
    • Game 2 of the NBA Finals was only the second time this season the Heat lost when Wade produced more than 0.400 est.WP48 (an average player produces 0.100 est.WP48). The other loss came against the New Orleans Hornets on November 5th. This spreadsheet lists Wade’s +0.400 games this season.



    • Mario Chalmers hit a big, wide-open three-pointer to tie the game at 93. He was the second-most productive Heat player in the fourth quarter with an estimated 0.054 wins produced in 12 minutes (0.218 est.WP48). The problem with Chalmers, however, was the three-pointer he hit was his first of the game after six attempts. As a result of that poor shooting, Chalmers was the least productive Heat player in the game with an estimated -0.079 wins produced in 24.9 minutes (-0.152 est.WP48) from nine points on eight shots and four free throw attempts with three assists, one steal, one turnover and one foul. 
    • Chris Bosh was the least productive Heat player in the fourth quarter with an estimated -0.061 wins produced in 12 minutes (-0.244 est.WP48) from two points, one rebound and two turnovers. Bosh finished with an estimated -0.076 wins produced in 39.8 minutes (-0.091 est.WP48) from 12 points on 16 shots and four free throw attempts with eight rebounds, two turnovers and three fouls. It was his 10th worst game of the season and third-worst game of the playoffs (Game 4 in Philadelphia and Game 3 in Boston were worse). 
    • The Heat are 7-10 when Bosh’s production is less than zero this season. This spreadsheet lists the games he’s had a negative impact on the Heat’s chances of winning this season. 

    • Unlike Bosh, Dirk was the most productive player on the floor in the fourth quarter with an estimated 0.164 wins produced in 12 minutes (0.655 est.WP48) from nine points on seven shots with three rebounds and two assists. 
    • Dirk ended the game as the most productive Mavs player with an estimated 0.253 wins produced in 42.1 minutes (0.289 est.WP48) from 24 points on 22 shots and three free throw attempts with 11 rebounds, four assists and five turnovers. 
    • Tyson Chandler had to pull extra duty for the Mavs in the fourth quarter when Brendan Haywood left after 48 seconds with a hip injury and was terribly unproductive with just an estimated -0.057 wins produced in 9.5 minutes from zero points, one rebound and two fouls. 
    • Despite a bad fourth quarter, Chandler was still the second-most productive Mavs player with an estimated 0.197 wins produced in 38.1 minutes (0.249 est.WP48) from 13 points on six shots and eight free throw attempts with seven rebounds, one steal and five fouls. 
    • As unproductive as Chandler was in the fourth quarter, Haywood was worse earlier in the game. After being the most productive Mavs player in Game 1, he was the least productive player in Game 2 with an estimated -0.086 wins produced in 8.2 minutes (-0.504 est.WP48) from two points, zero rebounds, one turnover and one foul. 
    • Bibby and Wade were the only above average players for the the Heat in Game 2 and as a result the Heat dominated the Mavs at PG (0.319 est.WP48) and SG (0.394 est.WP48), but lost the match-up battles in the frontcourt. 
    • The Heat lost the SF match-up (-0.069 est.WP48) as Shawn Marion (0.103 est.WP48) and DeShawn Stevenson (0.201 est.WP48) outplayed LeBron James (0.061 est.WP48) and Mike Miller (-0.116 est.WP48). LeBron only produced an estimated 0.050 wins in Game 2 from 20 points on 15 shots and four free throw attempts with eight rebounds, four steals, four assists, five turnovers and four fouls. Seven of LeBron’s 15 shots were three-pointers, which probably wasn’t the way Heat coach Erik Spoelstra wanted the game to play out. 
    • The Heat lost the PF match-up (-0.001 est.WP48) as Bosh and Udonis Haslem combined to produce an estimated zero wins in 46.3 minutes. 
    • The Heat lost the C match-up (-0.110 est.WP48) as Bosh and Joel Anthony combined to score four points and grab five rebounds while their Mavs counterparts put up 18 points and pulled down 10 rebounds.

    Series Notes:
    This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats for the Heat estimated from the box scores for the 2011 NBA Finals.




    This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats for the Mavs estimated from the box scores for the 2011 NBA Finals.



    • Wade has been the most productive player in the Finals by a mile with an estimated 0.8 wins produced and 0.458 est.WP48. 
    • Dirk has been the second-most productive player in the Finals with an estimated 0.329 wins produced and 0.191 est.WP48. He barely edged out LeBron, who has produced an estimated 0.310 wins. 
    • UD has been the least productive Heat player with an estimated -0.085 wins produced and -0.069 est.WP48. 
    • JJ Barea has been the least productive player in the Finals with an estimated -0.218 wins produced and -0.326 est.WP48. 
    • The Heat have outplayed the Mavs at three positions (est.WP48 > 0.100) - PG (0.251), SG (0.285) and SF (0.121). The Heat are getting killed at C (-0.097) because their big men are only shooting 19% and averaging just 7.5 rebounds per game. 
    • 81% of the Mavs production has come in the first half. 

    Game Three Thoughts:
    • Bosh killed the Heat in Game 2 with bad shooting and bad defense on Nowitzki for the game-winning shot, but I still feel that he can turn it around. Maybe some home-cooking in Dallas (where he won the state championship in high school) will help.
    • The Mavs will see a different LeBron in Game 2. He will be more aggressive attacking the paint and getting to the line. Combined with Wade's match-up advantages, I don't think the Mavs will be able to keep the deficit under 10 points. I expect them to lose big.

    Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.

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