The Miami Heat lost Game 5 of the 2011 NBA Finals to the Dallas Mavericks 103-112 and head back to the American Airlines Arena on Biscayne Boulevard trailing 2-3 in the series.
This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:
Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Here are links to the wins produced stats:
- This spreadsheet contains the wins produced stats estimated from the box score for Game 5. Mario Chalmers was the most productive player in the game (0.386 est.WP48) and Jason Terry was the most productive Mavs player (0.279 est.WP48).
- This spreadsheet contains Wins Produced stats for the Heat in the NBA Finals. Wade has been the most productive player in the Finals with an estimated 1.4 wins produced.
- This spreadsheet contains wins produced stats for the Mavs in the NBA Finals. Tyson Chandler has been the most productive player for the Mavs with an estimated 1.2 wins produced.
- The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats for the playoffs. The Finals have pushed Wade to the top of the Heat Produced list for the playoffs.
Unless referenced otherwise, original game data used for this post was taken from popcornmachine.net and nba.com.