Wednesday, December 7, 2011

HEAT Check: 2012 Schedule Analysis


The compressed, 66-game schedule released by the NBA Tuesday night should have little impact on the Miami HEAT's performance this season.

All the Dead Basketball Poet Society's warnings about back-to-back-to-back games and other horrors from a lockout-shortened season led a HEAT fan on Twitter to ask if the team got screwed by the schedule this season. The immediate response was, "Schedule doesn't matter," but there was no research to back it up. Well, after some research the schedule does appear to be a "non-motherfucking factor."

According to NBAstuffer.com, the HEAT will play:
  • Games with no rest 20 times (back-to-backs aka B2Bs),
  • Games with no rest on the road 12 times (B2Bs-ON-ROAD),
  • Third game in four nights after one day's rest 16 times (3IN4) and
  • Games after one day's rest 21 times (1DAY).

The HEAT won 58 games for a winning percentage of 0.707 last season. According to NBAstuffer.com, the HEAT's winning percentage on short rest was:
  • 0.789 for games with no rest (B2Bs),
  • 0.692 for games with no rest on the road (B2Bs-ON-ROAD),
  • 0.615 for third game in four nights after one day's rest (3IN4) and
  • 0.781 for games after one day's rest (1DAY).

The spreadsheets below show the performance of HEAT players on short rest based on their Estimated Wins Produced. The list below summarizes the changes in players' production on short rest last season.
  • B2Bs: LeBron James' production decreased by one estimated win per season, Dwyane Wade's production increased by one estimated win per season, and Mike Miller and Joel Anthony combined to produce one extra estimated win per season.
  • B2Bs-ON-ROAD: LeBron's production decreased by an estimated 3.5 wins per season, Wade's production decreased by an estimated 2.5 wins per season and Chris Bosh's production decreased by an estimated 2.5 wins per season. Mario Chalmers' production increased by an estimated 2.5 wins per season, Eddie House's production increased by an estimated 2 wins per season, James Jones's production increased by an estimated 2 wins per season and The Warden's production increased by an estimated 2 wins per season.
  • 3IN4: Wade's production increased by one estimated win per season, LeBron's production decreased by an estimated 3 wins per season, House's production increased by an estimated 1.5 wins per season and Miller's production decreased by an estimated 1.5 wins per season.
  • 1DAY: LeBron and Chalmers' production increased by one estimated win per season while Bosh, Miller and The Warden's production decreased by one estimated win per season.

If the players perform on short rest this season the same way they produced last season, then worst case scenario is that it costs the HEAT one win.


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