Saturday, December 31, 2011

HEAT Produced: Miami 103, Minnesota 101

The numbers explain why the Miami HEAT needed a game-winning alley oop to prevent the Minnesota Timberwolves from stealing a win at home.

This article will used the statistical model for Estimated Wins Produced. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produced +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score for the Timberwolves game.

Most Productive HEAT Player

LeBron James produced an estimated 0.3 wins and 0.446 Est.WP48 from 34 points, 61.5% shooting efficiency,  eight rebounds, 10 assists, four steals and four turnovers.

Second Most Productive HEAT Player
Udonis Haslem produced an estimated 0.2 wins and 0.325 Est.WP48 from nine points, 57% shooting efficiency and nine rebounds.

Least Productive HEAT Player
Juwan Howard produced an estimated -0.085 wins and -0.473 Est.WP48 from three fouls and one turnover committed in just 8.6 minutes of playing time. Shane Battier was right behind him in the race to the bottom with an estimated -0.084 wins produced and -0.175 Est.WP48 from zero points on 0% shooting efficiency, three steals and three fouls.

Most Productive Timberwolves Player
Wayne Ellington produced an estimated 0.2 wins and 0.256 Est.WP48 off the bench with 11 points, 42% shooting efficiency, five rebounds and three steals. Ellington's shitty numbers were productive in this game because Dwyane Wade continued to struggle with his injured foot. Wade only produced an estimated 0.026 wins and 0.032 Est.WP48 from 19 points, 42% shooting efficiency, three rebounds, five assists, five turnovers and three blocks.

Least Productive Timberwolves Player
Michael Beasley produced an estimated -0.2 wins and -0.347 Est.WP48 from four points, 33% shooting efficiency, three rebounds, two turnovers and three fouls.

Point Guard Problem
Ricky Rubio produced an estimated 0.1 wins and 0.161 Est.WP48 from 12 points and 12 assists. Mario Chalmers played like a star with 0.289 Est.WP48 from nine points and five assists, but he was limited to just by foul trouble to just 14.6 minutes. Norris Cole struggled against another rookie PG for the second game in a row. Cole only produced -0.006 Est.WP48 as Rubio outrebounded him 6-1.

And that's the story by the numbers: Howard and Battier's struggles, Wade's injury and rookie PGs are the reasons the HEAT played a close game with the Timberwolves.

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