Monday, December 26, 2011

HEAT Produced: Miami Dominates Dallas Mavericks for Three Quarters on Christmas


The Miami HEAT expected to make spectacular plays against the Dallas Mavericks but they couldn’t have expected the same fourth quarter problems that were an issue in the Finals.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced stat. An average player produces 0.100 Estimated Wins Per 48 minutes (est.WP48). A star player produces 0.200 est.WP48. Great players produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

This spreadsheet lists the wins produced stats estimated from the Christmas Day box score. Game notes follow the spreadsheet.


King Christmas
Dwyane Wade averages 0.248 WP48 for his career in Christmas games. He produced 0.241 est. WP48 against the Mavs to become the most productive active NBA player on Christmas with an estimated 1.4 wins produced for his career. This was predicted in the article Best Christmas Player in the NBA Has the Biggest Beef, Too. Wade produced an estimated 0.2 wins on Christmas from 26 points on 21 shots and four free throws with eight rebounds, six assists, four turnovers and four fouls.

[Insert a Hater's Three Quarters Joke Here]
HEAT produced an estimated 1.2 wins in first three quarters and -0.5 estimated wins in fourth quarter when they shot 2-15 from the floor. This spreadsheet shows the production by each HEAT player in the fourth quarter.


  • Udonis Haslem was over 4.5 times more productive than an average player with 0.465 est.WP48 through three quarters. In the fourth quarter, he produced a below average 0.084 est.WP48 by scoring zero points but grabbing three rebounds.
  • Norris Cole was counterproductive with -0.115 est.WP48 through three quarters. In the fourth quarter, he was nearly seven times worse than that by scoring zero points with two turnovers and two fouls.
  • Wade was five times more productive than an average player with 0.516 est.WP48 through three quarters. In the fourth quarter, he produced -0.775 est.WP48 by shooting 1-5 from the floor with two turnovers in 7.7 minutes.
  • James Jones was seven times more productive than an average player with 0.703 est.WP48 through three quarters. In the fourth quarter, he produced -1.399 est.WP48 by shooting 0-3 from the floor with two turnovers and one foul.
  • LeBron James was seven times more productive than an average player with 0.722 est.WP48 through three quarters. In the fourth quarter, he produced -0.369 est.WP48 by shooting 1-3 from the floor with one turnover and one foul.
  • Chris Bosh was the only above average rotation player in the fourth quarter with 0.162 est.WP48 from five rebounds.

Most Productive HEAT Player
LeBron James with an estimated 0.4 wins produced in 36.2 minutes (0.526 est.WP48) from 37 points on 19 shots and 15 free throws with 10 rebounds, six assists, three turnovers, two steals and two blocks.

2nd Most Productive HEAT Player
Udonis Haslem with an estimated 0.2 wins produced in 32.3 minutes (0.357 est.WP48) from nine points on six shots and three free throws with 14 rebounds, three turnovers and five fouls.

Least Productive HEAT Player
Norris Cole with an estimated -0.2 wins produced in 23.6 minutes (-0.344 est.WP48) from seven points on eight shots and one free throw attempt with two rebounds, zero assists, four turnovers, three fouls and one steal. The rookie has struggled after generating a lot of hype in the Red & Black Game. He only produced -0.001 est.WP48 in the two pre-season games against the Orlando Magic (those stats will be posted on the HEAT Produced Page tomorrow).

No Point Guard Controversy
While Cole struggled, Mario Chalmers produced an estimated 0.1 wins in 24.4 minutes (0.263 est.WP48) from a three-point play plus four steals, four assists, two turnovers and three fouls. Chalmers was also well above average in the pre-season with an average of 0.379 est.WP48 for the two games against the Magic.

Most Productive Mavs Player
Jason Terry’s chest-thumping ass produced an estimated 0.2 wins in 28.8 minutes (0.334 est.WP48) from 23 points on 18 shots and one free throw with two steals and three assists. Terry produced a below average 0.064 est.WP48 through the first three quarters. 86 percent of Terry’s win production came in the fourth quarter from nine points on five shots and one steal. He had a reason to thump his chest.

2nd Most Productive Mavs Player
Delonte West produced an estimated 0.1 wins in 24.7 minutes (0.203 est.WP48) from 10 points on seven shots and three free throws with three steals, three assists and three turnovers.

Least Productive Mavs Player
Lamar Odom produced an estimated -0.1 wins in 13 minutes (-0.485 est.WP48) before he was ejected. He only scored four points on six shots and three free throw attempts with four rebounds, four fouls and two turnovers. He might need methodone for his Kobe Bryant withdrawal this season.

No Chandler, No Problem
HEAT only produced -0.022 and 0.037 est.WP48 at center and power forward against the Mavs last season. On Christmas Day, they produced 0.283 and 0.068 est.WP48 at those positions. 68 percent of that production came from UD and the rest came from Joel Anthony (0.235 est.WP48 and 0.1 est. wins produced). Last season, UD averaged 0.020 est.WP48 against the Mavs and The Warden averaged 0.003 est.WP48.

The HEAT won’t get a real test at center until they face Al Horford and the Atlanta Hawks on January 2nd and they won’t face any real talented size in the middle until they go against Andris Biedrins and the Golden State Warriors on January 10th and DeAndre Jordan and Lob City on January 11th.

The HEAT play the Tyson Chandler and the Knicks on January 27th.

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