Friday, December 30, 2011

HEAT Produced: Miami Escaped First Back-to-Back 2-0


LeBron James, Chris Bosh and James Jones shined the brightest as the Miami HEAT swept their first back-to-back set of the season by holding off a Boston Celtics team playing without Paul Pierce and by stealing a win from the Charlotte Bobcats.

This article will used the statistical model for Estimated Wins Produced. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produced +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

The HEAT stayed undefeated after their first back-to-back of the season but they have no quality wins in their first three games. They played a horrible fourth quarter against the Mavericks that gave away 21 points of a 32-point lead. They probably would have lost to the Celtics if Pierce played, since they stayed within eight points of the HEAT playing a three-guard lineup of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen and Keyon Dooling. They played well enough to lose to a Bobcats team that will be tanking by the end of the season.

The Estimated Wins Produced Christmas Day against the Mavs were already explained in the article, "Miami Dominates Dallas Mavericks for Three Quarters".

This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores for HEAT games against the Celtics and Bobcats.


LeBron, Bosh and the reigning three-point champ accounted for an estimated 100% of the HEAT’s win production in the back-to-back. Juwan Howard and Joel Anthony made modest contributions and every other player either made little to no contribution (i.e. Mario Chalmers, Shane Battier and Dwyane Wade ) or produced losses (Norris Cole and Udonis Haslem).

Celtics-HEAT Notes


While Wade and LeBron made hightlights, Bosh had another dominant performance against the Celtics in the front-end of the HEAT’s first back-to-back this season. This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score.



Bosh was the most productive HEAT player against the Celtics with an estimated 0.3 Wins Produced and 0.335 Est.WP48 from 18 points, 77% shooting efficiency and 11 rebounds.


On the break and in the halfcourt, LeBron was the second-most productive HEAT player with an estimated 0.2 Wins Produced and 0.276 Est.WP48 from 26 points, 64% shooting efficiency, six rebounds, five assists and two steals.

Additional notes...
Least productive HEAT player: UD with an estimated -0.1 Wins Produced and -0.116 Est.WP48 from four points, 11% shooting efficiency (1-9 from the floor), 12 rebounds and four fouls.
Most productive Celtic: Ray Allen with an estimated 0.3 Wins Produced and 0.300 Est.WP48 from 28 points, 92% shooting efficiency, three rebounds, four assists and two steals.
Least productive Celtic: Sasha Pavlovic with an estimated -0.2 Wins Produced and -0.551 Est.WP48 from five points, 63% shooting efficiency, two turnovers and four fouls. Life was tough guarding LeBron.

HEAT-Bobcats Notes


The HEAT stole a game that, statistically-speaking, they shouldn’t have won thanks to a heroic shot by Wade. This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score.



LeBron dominated Gerald Henderson, Corey Maggette and anyone else the Bobcats put in his way. He was the most productive HEAT player against the Bobcats with an estimated 0.5 Wins Produced from 35 points, 57% shooting efficiency, six rebounds, seven assists, three steals and two blocks.


Bosh provided his second star performance of the season and was the second-most productive HEAT player with an estimated 0.2 Wins Produced and 0.211 Est.WP48 from 25 points, 62% shooting efficiency, six rebounds, two assists and two blocks.

Additional notes...

Least productive HEAT player: Cole with an estimated -0.1 Wins Produced and -0.400 Est.WP48 from five points on 25% shooting efficiency and three fouls. Unfortunately, Cole returned to the low level of play he displayed before the Celtics game. Kemba Walker outplayed Cole badly as he produced like a star with 0.217 Est.WP48.

Most productive Bobcat: Gerald Henderson took advantage of a limited Wade on the second night of a back-to-back to produce an estimated 0.2 wins and 0.214 Est.WP48 from 21 points, 55% shooting efficiency, four rebounds, four assists, four turnovers, two blocks and two steals.

Second most productive Bobcat: D.J. Augustin murdered the HEAT point guards with an estimated 0.2 Wins Produced and 0.251 Est.WP48 from 20 points, 77% shooting efficiency, five rebounds, six assists and five turnovers.

Least productive Bobcat: Corey Maggette with an estimated -0.2 Wins Produced and -0.243 Est.WP48 from six points, 10% shooting efficiency, five fouls and two turnovers. Yes, life is tough guarding LeBron.

Box & One: Bobcats outplayed the HEAT at every position except small forward. The HEAT produced 0.483 Est.WP48 at SF, a below average 0.084 Est.WP48 at power forward, just 0.004 Est.WP48 at center and shooting guard and a black hole of -0.123 Est.WP48 at point guard.

Boxed out: HEAT were outrebounded at every position by the Bobcats and by 23 boards overall. The list below breaks down the rebounding deficit by position.
  • PG: -2
  • SG: -2
  • SF: -2
  • PF: -8
  • C: -9

Last season, the HEAT were only outrebounded, on average, at two positions: PF (-0.1) and C (-1.3). This season, the HEAT have been outrebounded, on average, at SF (-0.7) and PG (-1.3).

Bosh was very vocal in the pre-season about grabbing at least 10 rebounds per game this season, but he was outrebounded 6 to 16 by french fat boy Boris Diaw of the Bobcats. The HEAT play slimmed down rebounding leader Kevin Love and the Minnesota Timberwolves next.

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