Tuesday, December 20, 2011

NBA Free Agency: Where Golden Showers Happen


Some NBA fans are so happy the lockout is over they’re allowing NBA executives and the mainstream media to piss on their heads and tell them it’s sunshine.

You Might Be a Fan of Golden Showers If...


Most NBA fans are old enough to decide whether or not they want to be pissed on by their favorite franchise if they have all the information. If you’re a fan of the teams listed below and are into golden showers, then skip this article and enjoy the rest of the Internet. If you’re not into that shit, then keep reading for information that could save you from an unpleasant fan experience.

You’re a HEAT fan...
...that believes Eddy Curry can help the team at center. Assuming Curry could play (which is a big assumption since he hasn’t been able to practice), the HEAT shouldn’t expect any more production from Curry than they got from Joel Anthony.

This spreadsheet compares The Warden’s numbers from last season to Curry’s numbers from 2007, when he averaged a career-high 19.5 points per game.


If Curry could miraculously return to his 2007 form on offense and play the same level of defense that The Warden, Big Z and Erick Dampier did last season, then he would’ve produced an estimated 0.038 wins per 48 minutes. The Warden produced an estimated 0.036 wins per 48 minutes last season.

Why is that? The answer is simple. The Warden and Curry are two sides of the same wooden nickel. I compared them to a wooden nickel because both of them provide below average production. An average player produces 0.100 est.WP48. The Warden is to defense what Curry is to offense and vice versa.

Curry shot two percentage points better than The Warden, but blocked 80% less shots. Curry scored five times as many points but turned the ball over 75% more often. Curry created five times as many shots from the floor and the line, but The Warden held opponents to 26% shooting when he defended isolation plays.

If anyone from the HEAT organization says they believe Curry can provide an upgrade in the middle, then it’s a bold-faced lie. The HEAT wanted to do a favor for Dwyane Wade and LeBron James and Riley wants to piss on you.

See these HEATcasts for more discussion of HEAT free agency:

You’re a Knicks fan... 
...that believes Baron Davis will make a difference at point guard. He hasn’t made a difference the last three seasons:
  • 2009: -0.002 WP48, -0.1 Wins Produced
  • 2010: 0.089 WP48, 4.7 Wins Produced
  • 2011: 0.068 WP48, 2.4 Wins Produced

An average player produces 0.100 WP48 and Baron has been below average since 2009. If that’s not bad enough, he has a serious back injury that could keep him out two months. Knicks fans, James Dolan wants to piss on you.

You’re a Hornets fan...
...that believes the Chris Paul trade with the Clippers trade was better than the three-team trade with the Lakers and the Rockets. The spreadsheet below lists the wins exchanged in each trade.


The Clippers trade costs the Hornets 12 wins. Hornets fans that think the team will make up those 12 wins with the Minnesota Timberwolves’ unprotected first round draft pick and improvement from Gordon and Aminu should know that only 15 players other than CP3 produced more than 11 wins last season: Dwight Howard, Kevin Love, LeBron, Wade, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash, Landry Fields, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Zach Randolph, Jason Kidd, Lamar Odom, Tyson Chandler, Al Horford and Paul Pierce.

The NBA Max Salary article illustrated that only 12 max players were drafted in the last 15 years and five of those drafts featured no max players. 31 players were drafted in the last 15 years that produced more than 10 wins per season on their rookie contracts and three drafts had none of those players.

If the Hornets don’t get one of the first two picks, then they got screwed in the Clippers trade. Anything else is just David Stern pissing on you.

See these HEATcasts for more discussion of the CP3 trade:

You’re a Clippers Fan...
...that believes the CP3 trade changed the culture of the franchise. Just because he exercised the player option for the last year of his contract doesn’t necessarily mean CP3 will stay with the Clippers. Wouldn’t it be more likely the Clippers will trade him during the 2013 season before he becomes a free agent?

Why would CP3 become a free agent? Because Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan couldn’t catch enough alley oops to make up for dealing with an owner like Donald Sterling. According to his wikipedia page, Sterling’s controversies include racism, sexual harassment, refusing to pay for a coach’s cancer treatment and heckling his own players.

He also pimped his players out as eye candy in the locker room, according to legal documents from Elgin Baylor’s lawsuit against Sterling:

Sam Cassell, Elton Brand and Corey Maggette complained to me that DONALD STERLING would bring women into the locker room after games, while the players were showering, and make comments such as, 'Look at those beautiful black bodies.'”

There’s no such thing as changing the Clippers’ culture until Sterling sells the team. If Stern’s PR team in the mainstream media says otherwise, then they’re pissing on you.

Estimated Wins Produced numbers for the Miami Heat were taken from the HEAT Produced Page. Wins Produced numbers for the rest of the league were taken from wagesofwins.com.

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