Sunday, January 30, 2011

Off the Index: Debunking the NBA Sophomore Slump for Rookie Guards

I posted a new article on Bleacher Report that debunks the myth put forward in an NBA.com article that star rookie guards struggle in their second NBA seasons as teams prepare defenses and scouting reports to stop them.

Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry & Brandon Jennings: Are They in a Sophomore Slump? | Bleacher Report

Friday, January 28, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 88, New York 93

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from last night's 88-93 loss to the New York Knicks in Madison Square Garden.

This was a tough loss for a Heat fan living in the cold heart of New York City.

Three stories came out of this game:
  1. The Heat's fourth quarter collapse was their third-worst quarter of the season.
  2. The Heat reserves turned in their sixth-worst performance of the season and an argument can be made they robbed the starters of a win.
  3. Knicks rookie Landry Fields upstaged Dwyane Wade and took over the game in the fourth quarter.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Why the Spurs' R.C. Buford Has Never Won Executive of the Year - And Shouldn't Win It This Year, Either

It all began with a simple conversation on twitter started by Spurs blogger Andrew A. McNeill of 48 Minutes of Hell and Heat blogger Raul Takahashi of Hot Hot Hoops:

From: @aamcneill48MoH
Sent: Jan 26, 2011 1:55p
How has RC Buford never been Executive of the Year?
sent via TweetDeck
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/aamcneill48MoH/status/30337966886883329

From: @MIA_Heat_Index
Sent: Jan 26, 2011 3:56p
@Takahoopshi @aamcneill48MoH Nobody gets Exec. of the Year for taking no-brainers with the #1 pick
sent via web in reply to @Takahoopshi
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/MIA_Heat_Index/status/30368525231067137

From: @Takahoopshi
Sent: Jan 26, 2011 4:20p
@MIA_Heat_Index @aamcneill48MoH If you're referring to Duncan in 97', 13 yrs ago, Pop was the GM at the time. Buford since 02'. #threepeat
sent via TweetDeck in reply to @MIA_Heat_Index
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/Takahoopshi/status/30374562625490945

From: @MIA_Heat_Index
Sent: Jan 26, 2011 4:36p
@Takahoopshi @aamcneill48MoH In that case, what's he done 2 deserve the award? Didn't draft Parker/Ginobili; biggest FAs are Barry & Finley
sent via web in reply to @Takahoopshi
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/MIA_Heat_Index/status/30378599852810240

From: @Takahoopshi
Sent: Jan 26, 2011 5:03p
@MIA_Heat_Index That's an untweetable debate I'm sure @aamcneill48MoH can school everyone on but strong contender for a decade+ is admirable
sent via TweetDeck in reply to @MIA_Heat_Index
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/Takahoopshi/status/30385351348461568

From: @MIA_Heat_Index
Sent: Jan 26, 2011 5:05p
@Takahoopshi @aamcneill48MoH Only problem is that it's not a lifetime achievement award. Even if it was, all he's done is keep big 3.
sent via web in reply to @Takahoopshi
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/MIA_Heat_Index/status/30385803850944512

From: @aamcneill48MoH
Sent: Jan 26, 2011 8:08p
@MIA_Heat_Index But if the Spurs continue to win at the pace they do this year, he'll have one. And it will be absolutely justified.
sent via TweetDeck in reply to @MIA_Heat_Index
On Twitter: http://twitter.com/aamcneill48MoH/status/30431961747038208


The whole conversation was about 40 tweets long, but you get the point. Or maybe you don't. What the hell does this have to do with the Miami Heat?

R.C. Buford is an important story for the Heat because I don't think he deserves the Executive of the Year (XoY) award more than Pat Riley does. Let's see what the Wins Produced stats have to say about whether or not Buford has earned an XoY award as Spurs general manager.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Heat Check: The Rhime & Reason of Who's On Point

On Monday, Miami Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra announced that Mario Chalmers would replace Carlos Arroyo as the starting point guard.

Ethan J. Skolnick reported the following comments from Spoelstra in the Palm Beach Post
"It was a tough decision," coach Erik Spoelstra said Monday, explaining why Chalmers has replaced Carlos Arroyo as the primary point guard. "It really wasn't anything that Carlos was doing wrong. He was doing everything I asked him to do. I think this is what's best for the team right now."
Is Spoelstra right? Was Arroyo doing everything right? Is Chalmers really what's best for the team right now?

Let's use Wins Produced to check the rhyme and reason of who's on point for the Heat...


Monday, January 24, 2011

Heat Produced: The Lineups Change, Losing Streak Ends & Mike Miller Era Begins

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Hawks and Raptors games.

Three stories came out of these two games:

  1. LeBron James went nuts on the Hawks in the Heat's third overtime game of the last two weeks. Some people questioned his decision-making since the Heat lost, but his performance in OT led me to a different question. When have the Heat players been productive in games? Who wins when?
  2. Lineups, lineups, lineups. Injuries to the Three Kings forced Coach Erik Spoelstra to use a lot of different lineups this week. Heat fans have spent a lot of time questioning Spoelstra's lineups all season. So now that everybody on the roster except for Jamaal Magloire has seen substantial minutes, which lineups have been the most productive for the Heat?
  3. Mike Miller dominated the Toronto Raptors in Dwyane Wade's absence. How dominant was he?

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Heat Produced: A Cold Road Home From 1/7 - 1/15/11

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Miami Heat's five-game road trip against the Milwaukee Bucks, Portland Trailblazers, Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets and Chicago Bulls.

It was a long, cold trip for the Heat with a 2-3 record and efficiency differential of just -5.2. The defensive efficiency was 9.8 points worse per 100 possessions during the road trip and the offensive efficiency declined by 5.1 points. With that efficiency differential of -5.2 points per 100 possessions, the Heat were only expected to produce 1.7 wins on the road (see http://www.wagesofwins.com/WinsModel.html).

So which players were responsible for the few wins they did get, and which players were responsible for the losses?

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Off the Index: Carmelo Anthony and White Noise | Bleacher Report

I've been trying to solve some technical issues with the Heat Produced page, so that's why there haven't been any updates recently. I hope to have them resolved before Saturday night's game against the Bulls.

Until then, here's a link to a story off the index:

Carmelo Anthony and White Noise: Finding the Truth While Being Sold a Lie | Bleacher Report


While the story discusses the reporting of Carmelo Anthony trade rumors, it's really something I started thinking about after LeBron James announced he was going to sign with the Miami Heat.

I think a lot of the hatred for the Heat by NBA reporters and analysts came about for two simple reasons: greed and jealousy.

Saturday, January 8, 2011

Heat Check: Benching John Hollinger

Last month, at the request of reader Giovanni Valladares, I took a look at where the Miami Heat's bench ranked amongst the rest of the reserves in the NBA.  This month, John Hollinger did the same for espn.com in NBA: Rating the top benches - ESPN (insider access required).

In the piece I posted last month, the Miami Heat had the second-most productive bench in the NBA, despite the loss of Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller to injury. Hollinger, however, reports that the Heat have the second-worst bench in the league. What gives?

The big difference is that Hollinger used his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and I used Wins Produced. For the differences between PER and Wins Produced, see The Wages of Wins Journal FAQ.

Friday, January 7, 2011

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Heat Produced: Back-to-Back Wins Over Bobcats and Bucks

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the back-to-back games against the Charlotte Bobcats and Milwaukee Bucks.

Monday, January 3, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 114, Golden State Warriors 107

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the Miami Heat's 114-107 win over the Golden State Warriors.