Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Heat Shit List: NBA Finals Edition


The Miami Heat gave it to the haters again when they beat the Chicago Bulls and now they're in the NBA Finals. The Heat Shit List doubled in size during the month of May.

It's time for an update.


Heat Produced: How Eddie House and the Dress Coders Delivered Home-Court Advantage


The third article posted on this blog was about Eddie House signing with the Heat and whether Jamaal Magloire or Juwan Howard would be in a suit on the inactive list instead of a uniform (hence the term "dress coders"). In an odd turn of events, it turns out home-court advantage in the NBA Finals came down to how well those three played in the last game of the season against the Toronto Raptors.

Let's take a look at how Eddie and the Dress Coders won home-court advantage.

Heat Check: Back to the Grill Again in the NBA Finals



The NBA Finals begins tonight and if the Miami Heat want to win the Larry O’Brien trophy, then they will have to go back to where the franchise won its first championship — Dallas, Texas, a city known for its barbecue. Back to the grill again.

Let’s take a look at the numbers from then and now to preview the NBA Finals:
  • Then — 2006 and the season series 
  • Now — match-ups in the 2011 Finals 

Monday, May 30, 2011

Heat Produced: How the East Was Won


The Miami Heat got to the NBA Finals, which begin Tuesday at 9 PM, by defeating the Chicago Bulls 83-80 in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals to clinch the series 4-1.

Let’s take a look at how the East was won, by the numbers...

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Podcast: How the East Was Won, Why the West Will Lose and Which Crossover was Best?

Yes. They. Did.

Bloggers from the Miami Heat Index, Hot Hot Hoops and HeatFreak.com reviewed the Eastern Conference Finals, previewed the NBA Finals and discussed the best crossover in NBA history with fellow blogger and Chicago Bulls fan, Big Shot Ron, from the Section 357 Show on this week's podcast.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Off the Index: What Makes a Great Rebounder?


For some reason, rebounding is always a hot topic on the Wages of Wins Network and there has been lots of math and statistics provided in those discussions.

Is rebounding really that complicated? Do rebounds just fall into the hands of the closest player? I remember Chris Bosh said after a game this season that rebounding is really just about "going to get it." So why are some players better at getting them than others? I think there's a big factor in rebounding that's pretty simple.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Heat Produced: Quick Stats & Links for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals


Here are a few quick links to the Wins Produced stats estimated from the Miami Heat's 101-93 overtime win against the Chicago Bulls in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals to take a 3-1 series lead.

Dwyane Wade's Block on Derrick Rose Just Got Better


I thought Dwyane Wade's block on Derrick Rose in overtime was great, but Ryan Hurst made it even better.

Props to Jonathan Feuer and Frank for bringing it to my attention.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Heat Check: Trading Places with Derrick Rose and LeBron James


Chris Perkins published an article for FoxSports Florida that compared the 2011 edition of Derrick Rose and the Chicago Bulls to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2009 because both seemed destined for elimination in the Eastern Conference Finals after finishing with the best record in the regular season.

Like LeBron in '09, Bulls' Rose is on an island

In the article, former Cavs center Zydrunas Ilgauskas said it's hard to compare the two teams and LeBron said he thought the two teams were different. Let's see what the numbers have to say about it...

Monday, May 23, 2011

Heat Produced: Quick Stats & Links for Game 3 of Eastern Conference Finals


No time for a game recap tonight, so just a few quick links to the Wins Produced stats estimated from the Miami Heat's 96-85 win over the Chicago Bulls in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

Heat Check: The Gator Effect



The big story from Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals was Udonis Haslem and Mike Miller finally joining the Three Kings in the lineup for the first time all season. Haslem and Miller led the Florida Gators to the NCAA title game in 2000. Can they have the same effect on the 2011 Miami Heat?

Let’s take a look at the numbers behind the Gator Effect...

Saturday, May 21, 2011

Miami Heat Podcast: The Eastern Conference Finals Comes to Miami 1-1



Bloggers from the Miami Heat Index, Hot Hot Hoops and HeatFreak.com review Games 1-2 and preview Games 3-4 of the Eastern Conference Finals with fellow blogger and Chicago Bulls fan, Big Shot Ron, from the Section 357 Show.

Heat Produced Page Updated 5/21/11


The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Since it's 1 AM on a Friday night, that's all I have for now.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Heat Produced: Quick Stats & Links for Game 2 of Eastern Conference Finals

Like the LOX & CNN, Dwyane Wade left Omer Asik "Bleeding from the Mouth"

No time for a game recap tonight, so just a few quick links to the Wins Produced stats estimated from the Miami Heat's 85-75 win over the Chicago Bulls in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Off the Index: The NBA Playoffs' Top 100 Scoring Games of Last 20 Years, Ranked by Win Score

This post was prompted by a tweet from my man, Alfredo Arteago of HeatFreak.com and the Miami Heat Talk Podcast. He said Dirk Nowitzki's performance last night in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals was the best NBA playoff performance he'd seen since he became an NBA junkie in 1983.

Let's see what the numbers have to say...

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Off the Index: You Might Need to Hit the Lottery If...

...Your starters are worse than the reserves on the Chicago Bulls. That was the point made on the ESPN 980's  John Thompson Show in Washington D.C. on Monday by Coach Thompson's co-host, Rick "Doc" Walker.

ESPN 980 Audio Vault - Play Now

After watching Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Doc Walker wondered what some of the other NBA General Managers were doing assembling rosters with starting lineups worse than the Bulls' second unit of C.J. Watson, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik.

Is Doc Walker right? Are there teams with starting lineups that are worse than the Bulls bench? Let's take a look at the wins produced by the Bulls bench and the starting lineups in the NBA.

Off the Index: 2011 Western Conference Finals Pick

NBA Finals Preview

Time to make my picks for the Wages of Wins Network's playoff contest. The Miami Heat Index is currently in third place of that competition.

My Eastern Conference Finals pick was posted HERE. Now, it's time to make my pick for the Western Conference Finals series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks.

Monday, May 16, 2011

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Heat Check: Previewing the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals by the Numbers in the Matchups


I’m the lone member of the Wages of Wins Network that thinks the Miami Heat will defeat the Chicago Bulls in the Eastern Conference Finals. Here’s a rundown of the WoW Network’s picks:


With all of these statheads picking the Bulls, I must be a homer that’s ignoring the numbers, right? That’s where you’re wrong.

I’ve posted a few different previews of this series (see here and here) but I haven’t posted any Heat Produced stats yet. That changes today.

Let’s take a look at two sets of numbers for this series and see who’s wrong:
  • First, the season series won by the Bulls 3-0 and 
  • Second, the matchups at each position. 

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Heat Check: Back-and-Forth over Heat-Bulls with Big Shot Ron

Monster of the double entendre...

A fellow blogger and Bulls fan, Big Shot Ron, sent over five points on the Eastern Conference Finals (or as LeBron would call it, "dinner") that outlined why the Bulls would win and asked for my counterpoints. You can check out Ron’s points at his blog and my counter points below.

Miami Heat Podcast: Eastern Conference Finals Preview

It's Derrick Rose!


Bloggers from the Miami Heat Index, Hot Hot Hoops and HeatFreak.com previewed the Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls. The matchups between each team's starters, reserves and coaches were analyzed and predictions were made.

Friday, May 13, 2011

Heat Produced: Embrace the Chaos - Celtics Eliminated 97-87 in Game 5



The Eastern Conference Semifinals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics started as a battle between order and chaos. Chaos won and the reigning Eastern Conference champs were dethroned by Miami’s Three Kings. Fans can love it or hate it, but as Common said on the Ozomatli song this post was named after, “Whether love or hate... For revolution, chaos we embrace... Only through chaos will we ever see change.”


Let’s recap Game 5 as well as the series’ Most Valuable Player, Best Reserve, Best Coach and all of the wins produced stats that have been updated on the Heat Produced Page.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 98, Boston 90 in Game 4


The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in Boston. The Three Kings put the Heat back in the driver’s seat after they let the Celtics close the gap in Game 3. The Heat can eliminate the Celtics from the playoffs Wednesday night in Miami.

How did the Heat put themselves in this favorable position after getting blown out in Game 3 (their 11th consecutive loss in Boston)? Let’s take a look at the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores for Game 4.

Monday, May 9, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 81, Boston 97 in Game 3


The Heat Produced Page has been updated with stats from Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in Boston. After losing by 16-points, this series has become almost dead even. After the mainstream media called the Celtics too old and slow for the Heat, they gave the Heat a critical beatdown on Saturday night that statistically evened the series as they head into Game 4 tonight.

How close has the series become? Here’s a quick rundown:
  • The Heat have only outscored the Celtics by four points.
  • The Heat have scored 105 points per 100 possessions and allowed 105 points per 100 possessions.
  • The Heat have produced an estimated 1.6 wins in three games. The Celtics have produced an estimated 1.4 wins in three games.

How did the series become so even? Let’s take a look at the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores for Game 3 and the series.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Miami Heat Podcast: Reviewing Games 1-3 and Previewing Game 4

The Heat & Celtics have played a balanced series after 3 games

After losing Game 3 by 16 points, the Heat have only outscored the Celtics by 4 points in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Bloggers from the Miami Heat Index and HeatFreak.com discussed what happened in Games 1-3 of the Celtics-Heat playoff series as well as what to expect in Game 4 and the rest of the series. They also discussed the rest of the NBA Conference Semifinals matchups.

Friday, May 6, 2011

Heat Check: What to Expect in Boston?


The Peninsula Is Mightier blog posted some audio clips with the Miami Heat players and Coach Erik Spoelstra previewing Game 3 against the Boston Celtics in the TD Garden. In one clip, Dwyane Wade mentioned that he hasn't won a game in Boston in a long time.

Let’s take a look at how the Heat have produced wins on the road this season and at the TD Garden, in particular.

Heat Produced: Miami 102, Boston 91 in Game 2 of East Semis

Bosh was a beast on both ends in Game 2
(Photo taken from http://bit.ly/igRTwM)

The playoff stats on the Heat Produced Page were updated after Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. A link to the updated page and stats were posted on Twitter, but I forgot to post them here.

Let's rectify that mistake...

Monday, May 2, 2011

Heat Produced: Miami 99, Boston Celtics 90


How did the Heat beat the Celtics in Game 1? As Nas said, "It Ain't Hard To Tell."

Alfredo Arteaga from HeatFreak.com said on this week's Miami Heat Podcast that he expected complete and utter domination by Dwyane Wade in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. Well, Wade didn't come out with complete domination, but he did play like a superstar in Game 1 against the Celtics with 38 points and five assists.

The Heat Produced Page has been updated with the stats from Game 1. Let's run through the numbers...

Sunday, May 1, 2011

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat is Order vs. Chaos

The Genesis
This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced, statistical models created by Professor David Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal, to measure how much a player's box score statistics contributed to their team's efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces +0.200 Est.WP48 and a superstar produces +0.300 Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

Simple Models of Player Performance
Wins Produced vs. Win Score
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics