Monday, January 9, 2012

HEAT Produced: Best Record in the NBA with Room to Improve


The Miami HEAT can be a lot better than the team with the best record in the NBA at 8-1.

The HEAT Produced Page was updated with stats from the last three games and the numbers make one thing very clear: the HEAT are playing better than last year at every position except shooting guard.

This article will use the Estimated Wins Produced stat. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produced +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

The Est.WP48 stats for each position on the HEAT last season and this season are listed below.
  • PG production improved from 0.112 Est.WP48 last season to 0.129 Est.WP48 this season.
  • SG production declined from  0.183 Est.WP48 last season to 0.110 Est.WP48 this season.
  • SF production improved from 0.219 Est.WP48 last season to 0.273 Est.WP48 this season.
  • PF production improved from 0.116 Est.WP48 last season to 0.177 Est.WP48 this season.
  • C production improved from 0.088 Est.WP48 last season to 0.106 Est.WP48 this season.

The problems at SG are injuries to Dwyane Wade and Mike Miller but both may return to action during the HEAT's West coast road trip this week.

What will their return mean? Wade was only producing 0.114 Est.WP48 this season on a bad foot compared to the 0.249 Est.WP48 he produced last season. Miller produced 0.110 Est.WP48 last season while Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier has only produced -0.066 Est.WP48 in 18% of the minutes available at SG this season.

If a healthy Wade and Miller can increase the SG production to its level from last season, then it would improve the HEAT by four wins over the last 56 games of the season (assuming they both return against the Clippers on Wednesday).

The HEAT are currently playing well enough to win 52 games. If the SG production returns to last season's levels and production at the other positions remains the same then the HEAT will play well enough to win 56 games. It's not the 58 wins notorious Bulls fan Michael Wilbon predicted, but it should be good enough for the best record in the league.

But that's in the future. Presently, the HEAT have the best record in the league after defeating the Pacers, Hawks and Nets. The  Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores of those games are provided below.

HEAT 118, Pacers 83


This spreadsheet lists the Estimated Wins Produced stats from the HEAT's roll over the Pacers.
  • Most Productive HEAT Player: LeBron James with 0.5 est. wins produced (0.599 Est.WP48) from 33 points, 57% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds and 13 assists.
  • 2nd Most Productive HEAT Player: Mario Chalmers with 0.3 est. wins produced (0.466 Est.WP48) from 14 points, 70% shooting efficiency, 6 rebounds and 3 assists.
  • Least Productive HEAT Player: Norris Cole with -0.1 est. wins produced (-0.223 Est.WP48) from 10 points, 38% shooting efficiency and 6 turnovers.
  • Most Productive Pacer: Roy Hibbert with 0.2 est. wins produced (0.285 Est.WP48) from 16 points, 64% shooting efficiency and 12 rebounds.
  • Least Productive Pacer: Danny Granger with -0.3 est. wins produced (-0.438 Est.WP48) from 6 points, 19% shooting efficiency, 3 turnovers and 3 fouls.


HEAT 116, Hawks 109 (3OT)


This spreadsheet lists the Estimated Wins Produced stats from the HEAT's triple overtime win over the Hawks.
  • Most Productive HEAT Player: Mario Chalmers with 0.3 est. wins produced (0.345 Est.WP48) from 29 points, 55% shooting efficiency, 7 rebounds, 8 assists and 3 steals.
  • 2nd Most Productive HEAT Player: Chris Bosh with 0.2 est. wins produced (0.270 Est.WP48) from 33 points, 54% shooting efficiency, 14 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks.
  • Least Productive HEAT Player: Shane Battier with -0.1 est. wins produced (-0.084 Est.WP48) from 9 points, 40% shooting efficiency and 5 fouls.
  • Most Productive Hawk: Willie Green with 0.2 est. wins produced (0.576 Est.WP48) from 14 points, 100% shooting efficiency and 1 steal.
  • Least Productive Hawk: Marvin Williams with -0.1 est. wins produced (-0.128 Est.WP48) from 7 points and 25% shooting efficiency.

HEAT 101, Nets 90


This spreadsheet lists the Estimated Wins Produced stats from the HEAT's runaway win against the Nets.
  • Most Productive HEAT Player: LeBron James with 0.2 est. wins produced (0.302 Est.WP48) from 32 points, 65% shooting efficiency, 9 assists and 7 rebounds.
  • 2nd Most Productive HEAT Player: Mario Chalmers with 0.2 est. wins produced (0.495 Est.WP48) from 7 points, 75% shooting efficiency, 7 assists and 4 rebounds.
  • Least Productive HEAT Player: Terrel Harris with -0.04 est. wins produced (-0.135 Est.WP48) from 4 points, 40% shooting efficiency and 3 turnovers.
  • Most Productive Nets Player: Shelden Williams with 0.2 est. wins produced (0.264 Est.WP48) from 8 points, 40% shooting efficiency and 13 rebounds.
  • Least Productive Nets Player: Deron Williams with -0.2 est. wins produced (-0.239 Est.WP48) from 10 points, 31% shooting efficiency, 10 assists and 5 turnovers.

The next HEAT game is against the Golden State Warriors in Oracle Arena on 1/10/12 at 10:30 PM ET.

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