Sunday, January 29, 2012

HEAT Produced: Can Miami Beat Chicago for an Undefeated Week?


Can the Miami HEAT defeat the Chicago Bulls for their third undefeated week this season?

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced stat. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players would be 0.500. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information and updated regular season stats.

Bulls vs. HEAT
The HEAT have a 53% chance of beating the Bulls based on this formula developed by Arturo Galletti and the schedule-adjusted efficiency differential stats from nbastuffer.com. A win will give the HEAT a perfect 4-0 record for the week. Here's a list of the HEAT's other perfect weeks this season:
  • 12/25 - 12/31: @Mavs, Celtics, @Bobcats, @Timberwolves
  • 1/15 - 1/21: Spurs, Lakers, Sixers

This week the HEAT defeated the Cavs, Pistons and Knicks. The HEAT Produced Page was updated with the stats from all three games.

Cavs vs. HEAT


The spreadsheet below lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score of the Cavs game.


HEAT vs. Pistons


The spreadsheet below lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score of the Pistons game.


Knicks vs. HEAT


The spreadsheet below lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score of the Knicks game.


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