Tuesday, January 24, 2012

HEAT Produced: Can Miami Even Up Its Record on Back-to-Backs This Week?

<a href='http://www.foxsportsflorida.com/pages/video?videoid=aa352bf5-62f8-4e55-b4c2-be5e41b4e4e2&amp;src=v5:embed::' target='_new' title='Spoelstra: &#39;We didn&#39;t take care of the ball&#39;' >Video: Spoelstra: &#39;We didn&#39;t take care of the ball&#39;</a>

Miami HEAT are 2-3 on the second night of back-to-backs this season after a tough loss to the Milwaukee Bucks at home. Will they be able to get that record up to 0.500 after the next back-to-back against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons?

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced stat. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players would be 0.500. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information and updated regular season stats.

Back-to-Back Stats
The HEAT should get back to 0.500 on the second nights of back-to-backs with a 90% chance of beating the Cavaliers and 82% chance of beating the Pistons without Dwyane Wade, based on this formula developed by Arturo Galletti from the Wages of Wins NetworkThe spreadsheet below lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores of the five games the HEAT played on the second night of a back-to-back so far this season.

Back-to-Back Notes
  • Only two rotation players have provided above average production on back-to-backs this season: LeBron James (0.327 Est.WP48) and Joel Anthony (0.107 Est.WP48). Since they're probably the most athletic players on the team, along with Wade, it makes sense they can withstand the rigors better than most.
  • Wade's production in three back-to-back games dropped to 0.005 Est.WP48 from 0.145 Est.WP48 for the season. He's only shooting with 32% efficiency on the second night of back-to-backs.
  • Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier is the only HEAT player whose production increased on a back-to-back. He went from -0.006 Est.WP48 to 0.049 Est.WP48. Of course, his production is still below average and it's hard to be less productive when your production is already less than zero.
  • Opposing PGs have killed the HEAT on the end of back-to-backs, producing 0.218 Est.WP48 to the HEAT's -0.018 Est.WP48 at the position. The primary reason is that Norris Cole has only produced -0.227 Est.WP48 on the second nights of back-to-backs. His rookie PG battle in Detroit with Brandon Knight could determine the outcome of the game.


Bucks vs. HEAT Notes
The spreadsheet below lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score of the Bucks game and it reflects some of the trends developing for the HEAT this season on the end of back-to-backs.
  • Most Productive HEAT Player: LeBron James with 0.4 Est. Wins Produced and 0.563 Est.WP48 from 28 points, 44% shooting efficiency, 13 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 turnovers.
  • Least Productive HEAT Player: Mario Chalmers with -0.1 Est. Wins Produced and -0.184 Est.WP48 from 12 points, 32% shooting efficiency, 6 turnovers and 4 fouls. The point guard problem on back-to-backs isn't just Cole, but the rookie only produced -0.136 Est.WP48 against the Bucks.
  • Most Productive Bucks Player: Brandon Jennings with 0.3 Est. Wins Produced and 0.410 Est.WP48 from 23 points, 28% shooting efficiency, 6 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals and 1 turnover. The other side of the PG problem.
  • Least Productive Bucks Player: Stephen Jackson with -0.1 Est. Wins Produced and -0.267 Est.WP48 from 10 points, 38% shooting efficiency, 4 turnovers and 3 fouls. Capt. Jack can't shoot. What's new? What's a lockout?


76ers vs. HEAT Notes
The spreadsheet below lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score of the Sixers game.
  • Most Productive HEAT Player: LeBron James with 0.4 Est. Wins Produced and 0.549 Est.WP48 from 28 points, 71% shooting efficiency, 9 rebounds, 4 steals, 5 assists and 3 blocks.
  • 2nd Most Productive HEAT Player: Mario Chalmers with 0.3 Est. Wins Produced and 0.431 Est.WP48 from 11 points, 75% shooting efficiency, 8 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block and 0 turnovers.
  • Least Productive HEAT Player: Joel Anthony with -0.03 Est. Wins Produced and -0.041 Est.WP48 from 9 points, 33% shooting efficiency, 3 turnovers and 3 fouls.
  • Most Productive Sixer: Nikola Vucevic with 0.2 Est. Wins Produced and 0.359 Est.WP48 from 13 points, 67% shooting efficiency and 9 rebounds. Things could have gotten interesting if he didn't hurt his knee.
  • Least Productive Sixer: Thaddeus Young with -0.2 Est. Wins Produced and -0.340 Est.WP48 from 6 points, 43% shooting efficiency and 4 fouls.


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