Wednesday, January 18, 2012

HEAT Produced: Miami 120, San Antonio 98

The production of LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Mike Miller fueled the Miami HEAT's comeback blowout of the San Antonio Spurs in spectacular fashion.

The HEAT Produced Page was updated with the latest Estimated Wins Produced stats. Miller produced more estimated wins in his first game than James Jones, Terrel Harris, Juwan Howard, Mickell Gladness, Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier, Dexter Pittman and Norris Cole have produced all season.

Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players would be 0.500. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Game Notes

This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score of the Spurs game.

Most Productive HEAT Player
Mike Miller produced an estimated 0.4 wins and 1.246 Est.WP48 from 18 points on six shots with four rebounds. Miller was 12.5 times more productive than an average player. Shaved Monkey Nuts should prepare to kiss his playing time goodbye once Dwyane Wade returns from injury. The article Where's the Value of Battier's Defense predicted as much.

2nd Most Productive HEAT Player
Chris Bosh produced an estimated 0.4 wins and 0.468 Est.WP48 from 30 points, 64% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 4 steals and 5 assists. It was Bosh's most productive game of the season. Here's his Top 3:
  1. 0.4 Est. Wins Produced (0.468 Est.WP48) on 1/17/12 vs. Spurs
  2. 0.3 Est. Wins Produced (0.335 Est.WP48) on 12/27/11 vs. Celtics
  3. 0.3 Est. Wins Produced (0.387 Est. WP48) on 1/4/12 vs. Pacers

Least Productive HEAT Player
Terrel Harris produced an estimated -0.1 wins and -0.562 Est.WP48 from 3 fouls and 1 turnover in 8 minutes. Norris Cole produced an estimated -0.1 wins and -0.225 Est.WP48 from 8 points, 44% shooting efficiency and 3 fouls. Cole is producing -0.074 Est.WP48 this season.

Point Guard Problems
Cole's out-of-control play is killing the HEAT's PG production. His 1-on-3 suicide missions on fast breaks and religious pursuit of his own shot need to be stopped. It doesn't make sense for the HEAT's backup point guard to shoot as frequently as Bosh, their third leading scorer and six-time All-Star.

Last season, the HEAT produced 0.112 Est.WP48 at PG with Carlos Arroyo, Chalmers and Mike Bibby. This season, the HEAT have only produced 0.074 Est.WP48 at PG despite Chalmers having his best season producing 0.182 Est.WP48. Chalmers only produced 0.096 Est.WP48 last season.

If Cole's play doesn't improve, then either Pat Riley needs to add a veteran PG to the roster or Erik Spoelstra needs to go with bigger lineups that feature Miller in the backcourt with Wade or LeBron.

Most Productive Spurs Player
Tony Parker produced an estimated 0.2 wins and 0.347 Est.WP48 from 18 points, 58% shooting efficiency, 3 steals, 3 assists and 2 rebounds. Parker was the fourth straight PG to destroy the HEAT defense:

Fortunately for the HEAT, their next opponent is the Lakers and thanks to David Stern they don't have a real PG.

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