Friday, January 20, 2012

HEAT Produced: Miami 98, LA Lakers 87

The Miami HEAT used their two most productive players this season to dominate the Lakers at their two weakest positions: Point Guard and Small Forward.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced stat. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players would be 0.500. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information and regular season stats.

Game Notes
The spreadsheet below lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score of the Lakers game.
  • Most Productive HEAT Player: LeBron James produced 0.3 Est. Wins and 0.333 Est.WP48 from 31 points, 48% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks.
  • 2nd Most Productive HEAT Player: Mario Chalmers produced 0.2 Est. Wins and 0.274 Est.WP48 from 10 points, 44% shooting efficiency, 6 assists, 1 steal and 1 turnover. Chalmers' stats were below average for him this season but very productive in this game because the Lakers PGs only produced a 12.5% shooting efficiency. If Chalmers continues to open up the scoring for the HEAT every game, then he gets a new nickname -"Ice Breaker."
  • Least Productive HEAT Player: Chris Bosh produced -0.04 Est. Wins and -0.056 Est.WP48 from 15 points, 55% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 2 turnovers and 4 fouls. Bosh's shooting efficiency and rebounding were both below average in this game.
  • Most Productive Laker: Pau Gasol produced 0.2 Est. Wins and 0.213 Est.WP48 from 26 points, 61% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds and 1 block.
  • 2nd Most Productive Laker: Kobe Bryant produced 0.1 Est. Wins and 0.156 Est.WP48 from 24 points, 45% shooting efficiency, 7 assists, 5 rebounds and 3 steals. So much for Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier shutting him down. Kobe produced 0.491 Est.WP48 in the second half to cut the HEAT's margin of victory in half. He nearly doubled that production in the fourth quarter with 0.842 Est.WP48. Kobe's late game assault forced Erik Spoelstra to play a sick LeBron the entire fourth quarter just to preserve the double-digit win when he should have been resting.
  • Least Productive Laker: Matt Barnes produced -0.1 Est. Wins and -0.203 Est.WP48 from 3 points, 17% shooting efficiency, 3 turnovers and 2 fouls.
  • Fourth Quarter Problems: The HEAT have played with the efficiency of a 73-win team in the first three quarters of games this season and like an 11-win team in the fourth quarter. The HEAT played like a 5-win team in the fourth quarter against the Lakers, which allowed the Purple & Gold to cut the lead in half by the final buzzer.

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