Wednesday, January 4, 2012

HEAT Produced: Miami Split 2nd Back-to-Back, Prepares "Pace & Space" for Pacers


The numbers explain why highlights weren't enough for the Miami HEAT to stay undefeated on the second night of their second back-to-back this season and what the players must do for the "Pace & Space" offense to be successful against the Indiana Pacers and the second-best defense in the NBA.

This article will use the Estimated Wins Produced stat. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produced +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Stats From 2nd Back-to-Back
This spreadsheet lists the Estimated Wins Produced by the HEAT in their second back-to-back set of the season.

Most Productive HEAT Player

Dwyane Wade produced an estimated 0.3 wins and 0.203 Est.WP48 in back-to-back games against the Charlotte Bobcats and Atlanta Hawks. 98% of Wade's production in the back-to-back came against the Bobcats. His performance was way below average against the Hawks, but he managed to average 24.1 points, 40% shooting efficiency, 11.3 assists, 3.5 steals and 1.4 blocks per 48 minutes across both games.

Second Most Productive HEAT Player

LeBron James produced an estimated 0.3 wins and 0.195 Est.WP48 in the back-to-back from 31.8 points with 61% shooting efficiency, 11.5 rebounds and 7.9 assists per 48 minutes. 63% of LeBron's production came against the Bobcats, but his performance was above average in both games.

Least Productive HEAT Player
James Jones produced an estimated zero wins and -0.016 Est.WP48 in the back-to-back from just 9.8 points with 75% shooting efficiency and 5.9 fouls per 48 minutes. Jones was below average in both games of the back-to-back.

Bobcats vs. HEAT

This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced estimated from the box score for the Bobcats game.

This game was the Point Guards' Revenge. Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole were terrible when they played the Bobcats in Charlotte as they combined to produce an estimated -0.1 wins and -0.123 Est.WP48. On New Year's Day at the AAA they combined to produced an estimated 0.5 wins and 0.451 Est.WP48.  HEAT PGs were only more productive than that in two games last season: 11/2/10 vs. Luke Ridnour and Sebastian Telfair of the Timberwolves and 12/1/10 vs. Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum of the Pistons.

Hawks vs. HEAT

This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced estimated from the box score for the Hawks game.

This game was a lackluster performance by the HEAT as they found themselves playing "hoops retarded" against another zone defense. The HEAT won't win any games when Shane Battier (aka  "Shaved Monkey Nuts") is the most productive player (0.248 Est.WP48). Of course, Shaved Monkey Nuts giveth and he taketh away.

Tracy McGrady dominated Battier in the fourth quarter with an estimated 0.3 wins produced and 1.089 Est.WP48 from 13 points, five rebounds and four assists. Yes, that's nearly 11 times better than an average player! Shaved Monkey Nuts produced an estimated -0.025 wins in the fourth quarter.

Pace & Space vs. Pacers

This spreadsheet lists the HEAT produced in the 2011 season series against the Pacers.

The season series was closely contested as the HEAT produced an estimated 1.6 wins while the Pacers produced an estimated 1.4 wins. The most productive HEAT players against the Pacers last season were LeBron, Chris Bosh and Chalmers.

The Pacers lost more than half of last season's production against the HEAT when Brandon Rush, T.J. Ford, Solomon Jones and Josh McRoberts left via free agency and trades. The remaining four starters for the Pacers were the least productive players on the team against the HEAT last season.

David West is now in the starting lineup and provided average production against the HEAT last season with 0.103 Est.WP48. George Hill is the first guard off the bench for the Pacers but was the least productive Spurs player against the HEAT with -0.104 Est.WP48.

As far as Pace & Space, the HEAT averaged 98 possessions per game against the Pacers last season and they average 98 possessions per game this season with the new offense. The Pacers slowed down their tempo from 95 possessions per game last season to 91 possessions per game this season and now rank 2nd in defensive efficiency. Last season they only ranked 12th.

It will be interesting to see if the HEAT can push the tempo against the Pacers this season like they did last season. Tipoff is 7:30 PM ET.

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