Tuesday, January 17, 2012

HEAT Produced: West Coast Killa


The Western Conference killed the Miami HEAT on the road, but what will happen when the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers come to Miami this week?

The HEAT Produced Page was updated with the latest Wins Produced stats estimated from the box scores of the HEAT’s west coast road trip. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players would be 0.500. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Chances of Survival
The Spurs and Lakers come to the Triple A this week to face a HEAT team that played 0.325 ball on the road against the Warriors, Clippers and Nuggets. The HEAT project to play 0.634 ball if Dwyane Wade’s production is removed.

Based on this formula developed by Arturo Galletti from the Wages of Wins Network and data from the NBA Geek, the HEAT have a 55% chance of keeping the Spurs winless on the road and a 57% chance of beating the Lakers without Wade. Of course, those numbers assume the HEAT play more like the team that went 8-1 and less like the team that lost three in a row.

Three and Out
This spreadsheet shows the HEAT production on their 0-3 western road trip. The HEAT began the road trip with the best record in the NBA and ended it with the 6th-best record in the East. This team is not great and it looked like everyone quit in the Nuggets game, including Erik Spoelstra.

West Coast Notes:
  • LeBron James (0.200 Est.WP48), Dwyane Wade (0.205 Est.WP48) and Udonis Haslem (0.157 Est.WP48) were the only players that provided above average production for the road trip.
  • The HEAT were outplayed at every position except SG and SF. UD’s production at PF was nullified by Chris Bosh producing -0.159 Est.WP48 in 35% of the minutes available at the position. 
  • PG was the least productive position because Norris Cole was the least productive HEAT player. He only produced -0.251 Est.WP48 at PG.
  • The HEAT played like a 0.667 team over the first three quarters and like a winless team in the fourth quarter and overtimes.


Warriors 111, HEAT 106


This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score for the Warriors game.

Game Notes
  • Most Productive HEAT Player: Dwyane Wade with 0.3 estimated wins produced and 0.501 Est.WP48 from 34 points, 48% shooting efficiency, 6 rebounds and 4 steals.
  • 2nd Most Productive HEAT Player: LeBron James with 0.1 est. wins produced and 0.186 Est.WP48 from 26 points, 53% shooting efficiency, 11 rebounds, 7 assists and 5 turnovers.
  • Least Productive HEAT Player: Chris Bosh with -0.2 est. wins produced and -0.259 Est.WP48 from 16 points, 47% shooting efficiency, 4 rebounds and 4 turnovers.
  • Most Productive Warrior: David Lee with 0.3 est. wins produced and 0.367 Est.WP48 from 20 points, 53% shooting efficiency, 14 rebounds and 4 steals.


Clippers 95, HEAT 89


This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score for the Clippers game.

Game Notes
  • Most Productive HEAT Player: Udonis Haslem with 0.2 estimated wins produced and 0.322 Est.WP48 from 6 points, 60% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds and 2 steals.
  • 2nd Most Productive HEAT Player: Mario Chalmers with 0.2 estimated wins produced and 0.239 Est.WP48 from 18 points, 62% shooting efficiency, 4 rebounds and 5 assists.
  • Least Productive HEAT Player: Norris Cole with -0.2 estimated wins produced and -0.724 Est.WP48 from 1 point, 0% shooting efficiency, 2 turnovers and 4 fouls.
  • Most Productive Clipper: Chris Paul with 0.3 estimated wins produced and 0.399 Est.WP48 from 27 points, 52% shooting efficiency, 11 assists, 6 rebounds and 3 steals.


Nuggets 117, HEAT 104


This spreadsheet lists the Wins Produced stats estimated from the box score for the Nuggets game.

Game Notes
  • Most Productive HEAT Player: LeBron James with 0.3 estimated wins produced and 0.413 Est.WP48 from 35 points, 73% shooting efficiency, 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals and 4 turnovers.
  • 2nd Most Productive HEAT Player: Udonis Haslem with 0.2 estimated wins produced and 0.327 Est.WP48 from 12 points, 60% shooting efficiency and 11 rebounds.
  • Least Productive HEAT Player: Dexter Pittman with -0.2 estimated wins produced and -0.558 Est.WP48 from 2 points, 25% shooting efficiency, 0 rebounds and 4 fouls.
  • Most Productive Nuggets Player: Ty Lawson with 0.3 estimated wins produced and 0.445 Est.WP48 from 24 points, 82% shooting efficiency, 9 assists, 3 rebounds and 2 steals.


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