Monday, March 5, 2012

Chris Bosh: Keys to Greatness

If Chris Bosh shoots like he did before Dwyane Wade came back from injury and rebounds like he did after, then the Miami HEAT will become one of the greatest NBA teams of all-time.

The spreadsheet below lists the production of Bosh and the average power forward in a HEAT game before and after Wade returned from injury against the Knicks.

Bosh's shooting efficiency is 43% since Wade returned from injury. For the 2012 season, his shooting efficiency is 50%, which is what he shot for the 2011 season. Since Wade returned from injury, Bosh is shooting 43% but he shot 56% before Wade's return.

Bosh was an above average rebounder at power forward last season, but he's been below average at that position this season. Since Wade returned from injury, Bosh has rebounded at an above average rate.

Last season, Bosh produced an estimated 0.177 wins per 48 minutes, but he's only producing 0.132 est.WP48 this season due to his struggles rebounding the ball before Wade's return and his struggle shooting the ball since.

Shandel Richardson from the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported Bosh has been working on different ways to score since Wade returned, so that he has a variety of moves for the post-season.

"I just missed shots. I don't get to the free-throw line. I'm in a position where I'm trying to figure other things out. I can do the same thing over and over and I know it will work. It's not what it's about for me right now. I'm trying to build for the postseason."

If Bosh combines last season's shooting efficiency with his rebounding since Wade returned from injury, then his production will rise to the same level it was last season. Bosh would've produced an estimated 1.4 extra wins if he played the first half of this season as productive as he was last season. That would be worth an extra one to two games in the standings.

If Bosh combines the shooting efficiency he showed before Wade's return from injury with the rebounding he showed afterwards, then his production doubles. In that scenario, Bosh would've produced an estimated 3.3 extra wins worth anywhere from one to six games in the standings. The HEAT record would have been no worse than 28-6 and could have been as high as 33-1 going into the All-Star break.

Bosh's shooting and rebounding could be the difference between title contender and dynasty for the Miami HEAT. They're 12-3 over the last two seasons when Bosh shoots above 55% and grabs more than 10 rebounds.

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