Sunday, March 11, 2012

Miami HEAT: Overtime Production

After a clutch performance in the fourth quarter, the Miami HEAT managed to beat the Indiana Pacers in overtime despite getting off to a rocky start.

The HEAT were 1-2 in OT games before they played the Pacers and it looked like they were going to be 1-3 after the first two-and-a-half minutes. Here's the play-by-play for the first half of OT from

4:44:00 Wade Turnover : Bad Pass (5 TO)
4:11:00 Haslem Jump Shot: Missed
3:37:00 Wade Driving Layup Shot: Missed
3:02:00 James Free Throw 1 of 2 Missed
3:02:00 James Free Throw 2 of 2 Missed
2:32:00 James Layup Shot: Missed
2:24:00 Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 Missed
2:24:00 Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)

The HEAT only scored 1 point in their first 6 possessions of OT. Unfortunately, bad play isn't new to the HEAT in OT this season.

In six overtime periods this season, the HEAT have played like a 4-win team (if you projected their play over an 82-game season). See the HEAT Produced Page for the team's production in each quarter this season. The spreadsheet below lists HEAT players' production in overtimes this season.

Most Productive HEAT Players in OT
Udonis Haslem (0.108 est.WP48) and Chris Bosh (0.102 est.WP48) have been the most productive players in OT this season with 0.064 est. wins produced each. Mario Chalmers is the only other HEAT player that's provided above average production in OT with 0.104 est.WP48.

Least Productive HEAT Players in OT
Oddly enough, the heroes of the Pacers game have been the least productive HEAT players in OT this season. LeBron James produced -0.043 est. wins in OT and Dwyane Wade's produced -0.110 est. wins in OT.

On a per-minute basis, LeBron's produced -0.137 est.WP48 and Wade's produced -0.353 est.WP48. That's well below the production of an average player's 0.100 est.WP48.

Perhaps their success against the Pacers in OT will lead to better performances from them in overtime for the rest of the season that don't require last second shots.

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