Wednesday, June 6, 2012

HEAT Produced: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Erik Spoelstra Came Up Short in Game 5

The HEAT needed more than they got from LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Erik Spoelstra in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Estimated Wins Produced is a stat created by sports economist David Berri that measures how much a player's stats from the box score contribute to their team's winning. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48). Star players produce 0.200 est.WP48 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more info.

Most Productive HEAT Players
LeBron James was the most productive HEAT player in Game 5 with 0.2 est. wins produced in 45.3 minutes (0.166 est.WP48) from 30 points, 48% shooting efficiency, 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 block and 3 turnovers. LeBron averaged 0.197 est.WP48 in the playoffs last year vs. the Celtics and 0.305 est.WP48 this regular season. The team needed him to be more productive for a win.

Dwyane Wade only produced 0.122 est.WP48 in Game 5. He averaged 0.270 est.WP48 in the playoffs last year vs. the Celtics and 0.233 est.WP48 in the regular season. Ray Allen, bone spurs and all, was more productive than Wade in Game 5 with 0.140 est.WP48. The HEAT can't win when that happens.

Mario Chalmers was the second-most productive HEAT player with 0.1 est. wins produced in 35.7 minutes (0.183 est.WP48) from 9 points, 50% shooting efficiency, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal and 3 turnovers. It was the first time 'Rio outplayed Rajon Rondo (0.123 est.WP48) in the series.

Chris Bosh was the most productive HEAT player on a per-minute basis with 0.390 est.WP48 in 14.3 minutes from 9 points, 38% shooting efficiency, 7 rebounds, 1 turnover and 1 foul. Erik Spoelstra decided not to play him in the fourth quarter because he didn't think it was fair. Yes, you read that right. No, it doesn't make any goddamn sense. Maybe this site is onto something...

If you believe Spo was justified not playing Bosh in the fourth quarter because the team was -12 when he was on the floor, then read the article, "Adjusted Plus-Minus: Hustling Outside the Box Score" and consider the fact that LeBron shot 2-11 during that -12 stretch with Bosh.

Least Productive HEAT Player
Norris Cole was the least productive HEAT player with -0.1 est. wins produced in 12.3 minutes (-0.234 est.WP48) from 0 points, 0% shooting efficiency, 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 turnover and 2 fouls. Do you know how hard it is to be that unproductive when the other team's point guard plays 44 minutes and shoots 3-15?

Most Productive Celtics
Kevin Garnett was the most productive Celtic with 0.2 est. wins produced in 35.6 minutes (0.333 est.WP48) from 26 points, 55% shooting efficiency, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks and 2 assists.

Despite KG's production, the Celtics barely outplayed the HEAT at center. Celtics produced an est. 0.116 wins at center while the HEAT produced 0.084 est. wins in the middle (average centers produce 0.100 est.WP48).

Game 1 is the only game the Celtics dominated the HEAT at center with 0.220 est. wins produced. Here's a recap of the center matchup in the series:
  • Game 1: -0.020 est. wins by HEAT centers, 0.220 est. wins by Celtics
  • Game 2: 0.309 est. wins by HEAT centers, -0.110 est. wins by Celtics
  • Game 3: 0.092 est. wins by HEAT centers, 0.108 est. wins by Celtics
  • Game 4: 0.208 est. wins by HEAT centers, -0.008 est. wins by Celtics
  • Game 5: 0.084 est. wins by HEAT centers, 0.116 est. wins by Celtics

Least Productive Celtics
Paul Pierce was the least productive Celtic with -0.1 est. wins produced in 43 minutes (-0.115 est.WP48). His only productive stint in the game was the fourth quarter, when he produced 0.371 est.WP48 and hit the big 3 over LeBron.

Ironically, Pierce and Mickael Pietrus have been the two least productive Celtics in the series and they hit the two biggest shots in the game to give the Celtics the lead. SMH...

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats for all players estimated from the Game 5 box score.

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