Friday, June 8, 2012

LeBron James Murdered the Celtics On Their Own Shit in Game 6

LeBron James left chalk outlines all over the TD Garden floor in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals

Before the game, this blog predicted that LeBron and Dwyane Wade would both score 40 or more points to murder the Celtics on their own shit and steal Game 6. Turns out the Miami HEAT only needed 1 of them to do it and the MVP did just that to force a Game 7 on Biscayne Boulevard.

This article uses Estimated Wins Produced, a stat created by sports economist David Berri that measures how much a player's stats from the box score contribute to their team's winning. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48). Star players produce 0.200 est.WP48 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more info.

Most Productive HEAT Players
In the most important game of the HEAT's season, LeBron came through with the most productive game any player had this season. He produced an estimated 0.5 wins in 44.8 minutes (0.568 est.WP48) from 45 points, 77% shooting efficiency, 15 rebounds and 5 assists.

How good was LeBron? He was more productive (0.5 est. wins) than the ENTIRE Celtics starting five (0.1 est. wins produced). In. Their. Building. It was an illmatic performance.

The table below lists the 10 most productive games by HEAT players this season. You may notice a theme...

10 Most Productive HEAT Games in 2012
6/7/2012 L James 44.8 0.568 0.53 BOS AWAY W
5/20/2012 L James 43.9 0.549 0.502 IND AWAY W
12/28/2011 L James 38.8 0.604 0.489 CHA AWAY W
2/14/2012 L James 33.4 0.676 0.47 IND AWAY W
1/4/2012 L James 37.7 0.599 0.47 IND HOME W
4/4/2012 L James 41.5 0.538 0.465 OKC HOME W
3/1/2012 L James 41 0.544 0.464 POR AWAY W
2/19/2012 L James 36.6 0.602 0.459 ORL HOME W
4/28/2012 L James 31.7 0.686 0.453 NYK HOME W
5/13/2012 L James 43.2 0.501 0.451 IND HOME W

Dwyane Wade was the second-most productive HEAT player in Game 6 with an est. 0.1 wins produced in 38.8 minutes (0.179 est.WP48) from 17 points, 35% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 steals. Mario Chalmers (0.102 est.WP48) outplayed Rajon Rondo (0.084 est.WP48) for the second straight game in the series.

Least Productive HEAT Player
Mike Miller was the least productive HEAT player in Game 6 with -0.1 est. wins produced in 16.2 minutes (-0.199 est.WP48) from 0 points, 0% shooting efficiency, 2 turnovers and 1 foul. Miller was the only member of the HEAT playoff rotation that had a below average performance in Game 6.

Most Productive Celtics
Brandon Bass was the most productive Celtic in Game 6 with 0.2 est. wins produced in 33.8 minutes (0.236 est.WP48) from 12 points, 63% shooting efficiency and 7 rebounds. 

Ray Allen was the second-most productive Celtic with 0.2 est. wins produced in 35.6 minutes (0.209 est.WP48) from 10 points, 50% shooting efficiency, 3 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal and 1 block. It was the second straight game Allen outplayed Wade in this series.

Least Productive Celtic
Paul Pierce was the least productive Celtic in Game 6 with -0.3 est. wins produced in 30.7 minutes (-0.465 est.WP48) from 9 points, 22% shooting efficiency, 5 rebounds, 3 steals, 3 turnovers and 3 fouls. He was completely dominated by LeBron, like he's been the entire series.

Kevin Garnett inability to put together consecutive dominant games continued in Game 6. KG only produced a well below average 0.014 est.WP48 after producing 0.333 est.WP48 in Game 5.

Here's a list of KG's production by game in the Eastern Conference Finals:
  • Game 1: 0.387 est.WP48
  • Game 2: -0.108 est.WP48
  • Game 3: 0.203 est.WP48
  • Game 4: 0.139 est.WP48
  • Game 5: 0.333 est.WP48
  • Game 6: 0.014 est.WP48

Of course, that means he should be at his best in Game 7. The HEAT wouldn't have it any other way. LeBron had his fun. It's Wade's turn in Game 7.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box score of Game 6 for all players.

No comments:

Post a Comment