Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Miami HEAT, Ray Allen and Fab Melo: The Definition of Insanity

Given the HEAT's experience with free agents the last two seasons, who's crazier for being excited about Ray Allen and Fab Melo: HEAT fans or management?

Ghosts of Three-Point Past
Let's review the 3-point shooters signed by the HEAT in free agency the last two seasons...

Here are the numbers...

Mike Miller

Shaved Monkey Nuts aka Shane Battier

Ray Allen

2011 and 2012 were the best 3-point shooting seasons of Ray Allen's career, but next season he'll be a 37 year-old shooting guard coming back from ankle surgery that's only 2 seasons removed from the second-worst 3-point shooting season of his career in 2010.

As disappointed as most HEAT fans were with the shooting of Miller and Shaved Monkey Nuts in their first seasons with the HEAT, it's hard to understand why they would be more excited about an even older three-point shooter coming off surgery for a weight-bearing injury.

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. HEAT fans advocating for Ray Allen are clearly insane.

Fab Melo
The problem with Fab Melo isn't about making shots, it's about missed shots. In particular, it's about his problem rebounding missed shots.

Below is a ranking of NCAA centers by rebounds per game for the 2012 season. Fab Melo doesn't crack the Top 40.

Per Game
Rk Player Class Conf MP TRB
1 Kyle O'Quinn SR MEAC 31.3 10.3
2 Mike Groselle JR Southern 35.3 9.6
3 Vander Joaquim JR WAC 30.6 9.5
4 William Mosley SR Southland 29.5 9.5
5 Antwan Carter SR Ind 34.0 9.2
6 Gorgui Dieng SO Big East 32.8 9.1
7 Al'lonzo Coleman SR Big South 30.4 8.8
8 Corbin Moore SR WCC 30.5 8.6
9 Alec Brown SO Horizon 31.3 8.2
10 Meyers Leonard SO Big Ten 31.8 8.2
11 Kyle Barone JR WAC 32.8 8.0
12 Kervin Bristol SR A-10 25.4 8.0
13 Garrett Stutz SR MVC 24.6 8.0
14 Chris Braswell JR A-10 29.8 7.6
15 Andre Drummond FR Big East 28.4 7.6
16 Ben Aird SO GWC 30.5 7.5
17 Paul Crosby SR SWAC 32.8 7.4
18 Justin Glenn SR A-Sun 25.0 7.4
19 John Bohannon SO CUSA 26.5 7.3
20 David Bruce SO MEAC 22.8 7.3
Per Game
Rk Player Class Conf MP TRB
21 Gregory Echenique JR MVC 23.9 7.3
22 Aziz N'Diaye JR Pac-12 23.3 7.3
23 Mark Cisco JR Ivy 25.2 7.2
24 Justin Hamilton JR SEC 30.0 7.2
25 Peter "PJ" Roberson JR SWAC 28.8 7.1
26 Matt Stainbrook SO MAC 26.9 6.8
27 Adam Folker JR Big West 22.1 6.7
28 Trevor Gruis SO Summit 30.8 6.7
29 Isaac Butts SR Southern 21.1 6.6
30 Daniel Miller SO ACC 30.0 6.5
31 Kodi Maduka SO CUSA 22.7 6.3
32 Jon Pack SR Big South 25.9 6.3
33 Robert Sacre SR WCC 26.3 6.3
34 Jeff Withey JR Big 12 24.8 6.3
35 Steven McClellan SO Sun Belt 24.6 6.2
36 Jason Washburn JR Pac-12 28.8 6.2
37 Kenny Frease SR A-10 24.6 6.1
38 Henry Sims SR Big East 27.5 6.0
39 Brandon Walters SR MAAC 25.6 6.0
40 Tony Wroblicky SO Patriot 18.4 6.0
Per Game
Rk Player Class Conf MP TRB
41 Fab Melo SO Big East 25.4 5.8
Generated 6/26/2012.

Why should HEAT fans know better than to get excited about Fab Melo?

Eddy Curry averages 5.2 rebounds per game for his career. As bad as that is for a 7-footer, the article NBA Free Agency: Where Golden Showers Happen, illustrated that Curry's overall game has been unproductive in the NBA. This article on 2011 Free Agent Centers also shows how unproductive Curry's been in the NBA.

Fab Melo's overall game isn't very productive in college, either. According to Draft Express, Melo didn't crack the Top 40 Centers in Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) for the 2012 season, either.

Win Score is a statistic created by sports economist David Berri that measures player's contributions to wins using points, rebounds, steals, assists, blocks, shooting efficiency, turnovers and fouls. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Fab Melo's 10.0 WS40 indicates he was less productive in college than Dexter Pittman, who produced a 13.5 WS40 in his last season at University of Texas. Should HEAT fans really be excited about a player that's less productive than Pittman?

No, they shouldn't. That's insanity.

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