Friday, July 13, 2012

B.I.W? Kevin Durant's Domination of DR Was a Top 5 Team USA Performance

Kevin Durant domination of Dominican Republic in Team USA's 113-59 exhibition game victory in Vegas was the fourth-most productive game for Team USA in the last four years.

This article uses Estimated Wins Produced, a statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Since an average team's winning percentage is 0.500, an average player produces 0.100 estimated wins per 40 minutes (est.WP40). A star player produces 0.200 est.WP48 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information on Wins Produced.

Durant Begins His Bid For World Domination
Durant produced 0.6 est. wins in 22.3 minutes (1.008 est.WP40) from 24 points, 9-11 shooting, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 turnover and 1 foul. He was over 3 times more productive than LeBron James, who produced 0.2 est. wins in 17.3 minutes (0.357 est.WP40) from 7 points, 50% shooting efficiency, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 1 turnover and 1 foul.

Kevin Love and Andre Iguodala were the second-most productive players in the game for Team USA. Love produced 0.3 est. wins in 19.2 minutes (0.653 est.WP40) from 11 points, 64.2% shooting efficiency, 2 assists, 2 steals, 0 turnovers and 1 foul. Iguodala produced 0.3 est. wins in 20.4 minutes (0.598 est.WP40) from 18 points, 7-9 shooting, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 assist, 1 turnover and 2 fouls.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced for every player estimated from the game's box score.

Since 2008, the only Team USA players that produced more than Durant's 0.562 est. wins are Chris Paul, Dwight Howard and Durant himself (2010 World Championships). See the spreadsheets for the box scores of their games below.

CP3 vs. Spain, Aug. 16, 2008
Chris Paul produced 0.622 est. wins vs. Spain in 2008 from 14 points, 8-8 from the FT line, 5 rebounds, 5 steals, 8 assists, 2 turnovers and 2 fouls in 23 minutes (1.082 est.WP40).

Dwight vs. Germany, Aug. 18, 2008
Dwight Howard produced 0.580 est. wins vs. Germany in 2008 from 22 points, 9-10 shooting, 10 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 assists, 2 turnovers and 2 fouls in 19 minutes (1.221 est.WP40).

Durant vs. Lithuania in the 2010 World Championships
Durant produced 0.626 est. wins in 38 minutes (0.659 est.WP40) from 38 points, 66% shooting efficiency, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 turnover and 1 foul.

The Battle for B.I.W.
If Durant continues to play like he did last night, then two things will happen: 1) FIBA will have to seriously consider moving the three-point line back and 2) Durant could take over the title of B.I.W. previously held by Dwyane Wade.

Wade produced an est. 4.1 wins in the 2008 Olympics and 0.653 est.WP40. Durant dwarfed those numbers last night. Can he keep it up in London?

For more on the battle between Wade, LeBron and Durant in international play, see the article, Who Will Be B.I.W. in 2012?

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