Tuesday, July 17, 2012

B.I.W: LeBron James Dominates Kevin Durant's Hometown

Kevin Durant's short-lived bid for world domination ended in his hometown as LeBron James and Chris Paul stole the show for Team USA vs. Brazil.

Durant was the most productive player on Team USA in their Vegas exhibition game against the Dominican Republic and their was talk of him taking Dwyane Wade's title of Best In the World (B.I.W.) from the 2008 Olympics. Well, not so fast...

Let's take a look at the numbers from Team USA's second exhibition game against Brazil in Washington D.C.

This article uses Estimated Wins Produced, a statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Since an average team's winning percentage is 0.500, an average player produces 0.100 est. wins per 40 minutes (est.WP40). A star player produces 0.200 est.WP40 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP40. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information on Est. Wins Produced.

Team USA 80, Brazil 69
CP3 was the most productive player vs. Brazil with an est. 0.4 wins produced in 23 minutes (0.668 est.WP40) from 10 points, 64% shooting efficiency, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, 1 block, 0 turnovers and 2 fouls. Brazil's starting PG, Marcelo Huertas, gave CP3 all he could handle with 0.4 est. wins produced from a double-double of 11 points and 13 assists in 30 minutes.

LeBron was the second-most productive player vs. Brazil with an est. 0.4 wins produced in 32.9 minutes (0.437 est.WP40) from 30 points, 60% shooting efficiency, 6 rebounds, 4 steals and 5 turnovers. Durant struggled with a below average 0.041 est.WP40 from 11 points on 42% shooting.

Carmelo Anthony was the least productive player vs. Brazil with -0.2 est. wins produced in 17 minutes (-0.494 est.WP40) from 3 points, 14% shooting efficiency and 3 fouls.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box score for all players in the game against Brazil.

Most and Least Productive Players in Exhibition
Despite his poor performance in his own backyard, Durant is still the most productive player on Team USA after 2 exhibition games with 0.6 est. wins produced. LeBron and CP3 are right behind him with 0.5 est. wins produced each.

The least productive players after 2 exhibition games are Kobe Bryant and Melo. Kobe's produced -0.2 est. wins and Melo's produced -0.1 est. wins. 

Kobe's production is below average in every category except shot attempts, steals, taking care of the ball and blocked shots. Melo's problem is that his shooting efficiency is only 31% after two games and he's averaging 6.8 fouls per 40 minutes. Kobe's had problems with shooting and fouls early, too, but Melo's tried to compensate for his flaws with rebounding. He currently leads Team USA with 12.2 rebounds per 40 minutes.

If Kobe and Melo can't get their games going, then Coach K may need to change his starting lineup in London.

The spreadsheet below summarizes the wins produced stats estimated from the box scores for both exhibition games.

See the  HEAT Produced Page  for an explanation of all stats and abbreviations in the spreadsheet.

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