Wednesday, July 11, 2012

HEAT Produced: Low Expectations For Rashard Lewis


Don't expect Rashard Lewis to add any wins to the Miami HEAT roster unless Trainer Jay Sabol has a Hot Tub Time Machine at American Airlines Arena.

This article uses Wins Produced, a statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Since an average team's winning percentage is 0.500, an average player produces 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (WP48). A star player produces 0.200 WP48 and great players produce 0.300 WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information on Wins Produced.

The Pharaoh Plays Like a Mummy, Not a King
Lewis produced a 2.1 Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48) last season for the Washington Wizards and played 729 minutes. The average WS48 produced by forwards in HEAT games last season was 6.3. That means Lewis would've produced -0.034 est.WP48 and -0.5 est. wins for the HEAT last season.

That projected output for Lewis would've been better than the following players on the HEAT roster in 2012: Dexter Pittman, Juwan Howard, Eddy Curry and Norris Cole. If you're a glass half full fan, then you can say Lewis is an upgrade. If you're looking forward to the HEAT winning #Not5Not6Not7 championships, then you might be a glass half empty fan of Lewis in a HEAT jersey.

Last season, his production was below average in every category except turnovers and fouls. According to The NBA Geek website, Lewis's production hasn't been above average for an NBA SF since 2010.

Lewis's production last 5 seasons:
  • 2012: 2.1 WS48
  • 2011: 4.9 WS48
  • 2010: 5.3 WS48
  • 2009: 6.1 WS48
  • 2008: 6.9 WS48

Back in the day, Lewis was an effective player. Reminisce with the article, Defending The Pharaoh While Waiting For Superman. It may be the last positive thing published on this blog about Lewis.

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