Saturday, July 21, 2012

HEAT Summer League: Terrel Harris Steals the Show and the Win from the Spurs

Terrel Harris came through with a big game at the Vegas Summer League to help the Miami HEAT beat a Spurs team that shot better than them, took better care of the ball and beat them on the boards.

This article uses Estimated Wins Produced, a statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Since an average team's winning percentage is 0.500, an average player produces 0.100 est. wins per 40 minutes (est.WP40). A star player produces 0.200 est.WP40 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP40. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information on Est. Wins Produced.

Most Productive Players
Terrel Harris was the most productive player in the game with 0.6 est. wins produced in 29.8 minutes (0.859 est.WP40) from 25 points, 90% shooting efficiency, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, 5 fouls and 1 turnover. 

Basketball may be a team sport, but Harris single-handedly won this game. The HEAT only had a 35% chance of winning and got the victory even though the Spurs outplayed the HEAT in three of the Four Factors of basketball success
  • Shooting efficiency: Spurs 47.2%, HEAT 46.3%
  • Turnovers: Spurs 20, HEAT 22
  • Rebounding: Spurs rebounded 40% of their missed shots, HEAT rebounded 27.5% of their missed shots
  • Getting to the line (FTM/FGA): Spurs 14%, HEAT 28%

Adrian Thomas was the second most productive HEAT player in the game with  0.1 est. wins produced in 15.9 minutes (0.361 est.WP40) from 11 points, 4/5 shooting, 3/4 from 3, 1 steal, 3 fouls and 2 turnovers.

Players to Watch
Harris was one of the players highlighted in the HEAT Summer League Preview. The list below summarizes how the other players highlighted in the preview performed.
  • Norris Cole produced -0.030 est.WP40. He outplayed the Spurs' PG, Cory Joseph (-0.329 est.WP40), but his former backcourt partner from Cleveland State, Cedric Jackson, wreaked havoc against the HEAT with 0.927 est.WP40 from 8 points, 7 steals, 4 assists and 3 rebounds in 21.9 minutes.
  • Kyle Weaver produced 0.013 est.WP40 on 1-4 shooting. His hopes of making the HEAT training camp may end up staying in Vegas.
  • Jason Clark produced 0.414 est.WP40 from 2 steals and 2 assists in 9.4 minutes. Unfortunately, he was on the floor for the Spurs' big runs after the 1st quarter when Dwight Hardy (-0.915 est.WP40) was giving the ball away (3 turnovers in 12.2 minutes). Clark may need to be more aggressive offensively to get a training camp invitation (only 1 shot attempt vs. Spurs).
  • Jarvis Varnado produced -0.707 est.WP40 over 10 minutes from 2 rebounds, 0 blocks, 3 fouls and 3 turnovers. If his poor summer league debut was caused by his abdominal strain injury, then it shouldn't affect his training camp invitation at all.
  • Dexter Pittman did not play vs. the Spurs.
  • Damian Saunders produced -0.025 est.WP40. Not a good follow-up to his performance against the Warriors.
  • Robert Dozier produced -0.181 est.WP40. He was completely outplayed by the Spurs'  JaMychal Green  (0.501 est.WP40). Dozier played twice as many minutes as he did in his summer league debut, but his performance indicates he either wasn't ready or couldn't compete with a player of Green's caliber. Hopefully, it's the former.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box score for all players in the game against the Spurs.

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