Thursday, July 19, 2012

HEAT Produced: 2 Surprise Players Outplayed Harrison Barnes in Ugly Summer League Game

The HEAT's 62-65 loss against the Warriors in the Vegas Summer League was hard to watch, so let's look at the numbers instead.

This article uses Estimated Wins Produced, a statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Since an average team's winning percentage is 0.500, an average player produces 0.100 est. wins per 40 minutes (est.WP40). A star player produces 0.200 est.WP40 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP40. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information on Est. Wins Produced.

Most Productive Players
HEAT summer league coach David Fizdale told Jason Jackson that 2 players surprised him after 2 games: Drew Viney and Damian Saunders. Those were the 2 most productive players against the Warriors and both forwards outplayed the Warriors' lottery pick, Harrison Barnes.

Viney led the HEAT with 0.2 est. wins produced in 27.6 minutes (0.243 est.WP40) from 10 points, 40% shooting efficiency, 8 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, 2 turnovers and 1 foul. Viney's produced like a star in every game so far with est.WP40 above 0.200 in each one.

Saunders was the 2nd most productive HEAT player with 0.2 est. wins produced in 11.5 minutes (0.543 est.WP40) from 2 points, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 3 steals, 1 block and 1 turnover. It was Saunders' 2nd straight productive game after struggling against the Raptors in his 2012 summer league debut.

Barnes struggled with 5-17 shooting and produced just 0.035 est.WP40 in the game.

Players to Watch
Saunders was one of the players highlighted in the HEAT Summer League Preview. The list below summarizes how the other players highlighted in the preview performed.
  • Norris Cole produced 0.053 est.WP40 against the Warriors. He was dominated by Charles Jenkins (0.247 est.WP40). It was Cole's first below average performance in Vegas.
  • Kyle Weaver produced 0.043 est.WP40. His performance has been disappointing in Vegas so far and it looks like he'll be a long shot to make the roster but may get an invitation to training camp.
  • Jason Clark did not play against the Warriors. DNP-CD's aren't a good sign for rookies fighting for a training camp invite.
  • Jarvis Varnado is still recovering from an abdominal strain and did not play. 2012 2nd round draft pick Justin Hamilton did return from injury, but only produced a below average 0.037 est.WP40.
  • Dexter Pittman produced 0.212 est.WP40 and outplayed 1st round draft pick Festus Ezeli but had more fouls (7) and turnovers (5) than rebounds (4).
  • Robert Dozier returned from injury to produce 0.206 est.WP40 in his 2012 Vegas Summer League debut. Seems like the HEAT were cautious with his minutes. He started the game but only played 11.8 minutes.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box score for all players in the game against the Warriors.

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