Thursday, September 20, 2012

Joel Anthony: 2012 Season Review

Joel Anthony top plays, performances, stats and splits from the 2012 season.

Miami HEAT Index is reviewing each HEAT player's performance in the 2012 season, from the most productive to the least productive. LeBronWade, Chalmers and Bosh were the first four players reviewed. The fifth review is The Warden.

This analysis uses Estimated Wins Produced, a statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Since an average team's winning percentage is 0.500, an average player produces 0.100 est. wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48). A star player produces 0.200 est.WP48 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information on Est. Wins Produced.

Season Analysis
The Warden finished 5th on the HEAT with an est. 3.3 wins produced in the 2012 regular season (0.117 est.WP48) from 56% shooting efficiency, 3.6 offensive rebounds, only 1.6 turnovers, 1.3 steals, 3 blocks and only 4.5 fouls per 48 minutes. 

The Warden produced an estimated 7.7% of the HEAT's wins in 8.4% of the minutes during the regular season plus an estimated 2.5% of the HEAT's wins in 5.9% of the minutes during the playoffs (0.4 est. wins produced).

Top 10 Games

The Warden's two most productive games from last season came in the dog days of April when the HEAT were mostly concerned with Coach Spo's maintenance program.

His most productive game in 2012 came in garbage time of the HEAT's worst effort of the season: a blowout loss to the Grizzlies at home. The Warden produced 0.2 est. wins in 14.2 minutes of the 2nd half (0.730 est.WP48) from 7 points on 3-3 shooting from the floor, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks and 1 foul.

The Warden's second most productive game came against the Rockets in LeBron James last game of the regular season with Dwyane Wade, Mario Chalmers and Chris Bosh sitting out. Anthony produced 0.2 est. wins in 25.6 minutes (0.401 est.WP48) from 11 points on 5-5 shooting from the floor, 6 rebounds, 2 turnovers, 1 steal, 1 block and 1 foul.

The Warden's most productive playoff game was the 1st game of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. He posted 9 points, 7 rebounds and 1 block in less than 24 minutes for his 8th most productive game of the season.

The HEAT went 9-1 in The Warden's 10 most productive games. The Warden produced half his top 10 games on the road and half at home. The spreadsheet below lists Joel Anthony production in every game from the 2012 season, sorted by est. wins produced.

The Warden was most productive last season in the 2nd quarter vs. lottery teams and the 4th quarter of wins. That means he was at his best against the reserves of bad teams and what was probably garbage time. Basically, it seems The Warden makes a living outplaying the opponents' scrubs.

In the 2nd quarter against lottery teams, The Warden produced an est. 0.9 wins in 127 minutes (0.330 est.WP48) from 14.4 points on 83% shooting efficiency, 83% free throw shooting on 4.5 attempts, 9.4 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 1.1 turnovers, 1.9 steals, 3.4 blocks and 3.8 fouls per 48 minutes.

In the 4th quarter of games the HEAT won, the Warden produced an est. 0.6 wins in 111.2 minutes (0.250 est.WP48) from 12.1 points on 84% shooting efficiency, 89% free throw shooting on 3.9 attempts, 11.7 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 1.3 turnovers, 0.9 steals, 2.2 blocks and 5.6 fouls per 48 minutes.

Below is a list of The Warden's best splits from last season in every category of the box score (all stats per 48 minutes):
  • Minutes: 1,193.3 in wins
  • Est.WP48: 0.330 in 2nd quarter vs. lottery teams
  • Est.WP: 2.8 in games the HEAT won
  • Plus/minus: +390 in wins
  • Shooting efficiency: 100% in 2nd quarter of back-to-back games
  • Shot attempts: 7.8 in 4th quarter of losses
  • Free throw shooting: 100% in 1st quarter of losses
  • Free throw attempts: 6.2 in 4th quarters on the road
  • Points: 14.4 in 2nd quarters vs. lottery teams
  • Offensive rebounds: 4.8 in 1st quarter of losses
  • Defensive rebounds: 8.0 in 4th quarters at home
  • Total rebounds: 12.1 in 1st quarter of losses
  • Steals: 3.0 in 4th quarter of back-to-back games
  • Turnovers: 0.9 in 1st quarters vs. playoff teams
  • Blocks: 3.6 in 2nd quarter of back-to-back games
  • Assists: 1.5 in 4th quarters vs. lottery teams
  • Fouls: 2.9 in 4th quarter vs. lottery teams

The spreadsheet below lists all the splits from the last season for The Warden.

Next up: Udonis Haslem

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