Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Mike Miller: 2012 Season Review

Mike Miller's top plays, performances, stats and splits from the 2012 season.

The Miami HEAT Index is reviewing each HEAT player's performance in the 2012 season, from the most productive to the least productive. LeBronWade, Chalmers, Bosh, The Warden, UD and Shaved Monkey Nuts were the first 7 players reviewed. It's time to #LetItFly for the 8th review.

This analysis uses Estimated Wins Produced, a statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Since an average team's winning percentage is 0.500, an average player produces 0.100 est. wins per 48 minutes (est.WP48). A star player produces 0.200 est.WP48 and great players produce 0.300 est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information on Est. Wins Produced.

Season Analysis
Miller finished 8th on the HEAT with an est. 1.7 wins produced in the 2012 regular season (0.106 est.WP48) from 56% shooting efficiency, 8.1 rebounds and only 1.9 turnovers per 48 minutes.

Miller produced an estimated 4% of the HEAT's wins in 4.7% of the team's minutes during the regular season and estimated 6.4% of the HEAT's post-season wins in 6.6% of the minutes in the playoffs.

Top 10 Games
Miller's big Game 5 in the Finals wasn't his only big performance in the playoffs. Five of his 10 most productive games from last season were in the playoffs. For some odd reason, Miller was also most productive against teams from the Eastern Conference. Only 2 of his 10 most productive games were against teams from the Western Conference: his season debut against the Spurs and Game 5 of the NBA Finals against OKC.

Miller's most productive game last season was his first game. Against the Spurs, he produced an est. 0.4 wins in 15.3 minutes (1.246 est.WP48) from 18 points, 6-6 shooting from the floor, 4 rebounds, 1 assist and 1 foul. Miller was 12 times more productive than the average player in that game. TWELVE TIMES.

Miller's most productive game in the playoffs was his last game of the season. Against OKC in Game 5, he produced an est. 0.3 wins in 23.3 minutes (0.535 est.WP48) from 23 points, 7-11 shooting from the floor, 5 rebounds, 1 steal and 4 fouls. Oh yeah - and he did it all with a busted back.

The spreadsheet below lists Miller's production in every game from last season, ranked by estimated wins produced.

Miller was most productive last season in the 4th quarter and at home, and in 4th quarters at home he was at his peak. Miller produced 0.325 est.WP48 in 4th quarters at American Airlines Arena - three times more productive than the average player.

In the 4th quarter, Miller produced an est. 1.5 wins in 324.8 minutes (0.222 est.WP48) from 17.4 points on 70% shooting efficiency, 60% free throw shooting on 0.7 attempts, 8.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 turnovers, 1.3 steals, 0.3 blocks and 4.1 fouls per 48 minutes.

At American Airlines Arena, Miller produced an est. 2.2 wins in 613.8 minutes (0.169 est.WP48) from 17.3 points on 59% shooting efficiency, 78% free throw shooting on 0.7 attempts, 9.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 turnovers, 1.0 steal, 0.2 blocks and 4.5 fouls per 48 minutes.

Below is a list of Miller's best splits from last season in every category of the box score (all stats per 48 minutes):
  • Minutes: 815.1 in wins
  • Est.WP48: 0.325 in 4th quarters at home
  • Est.WP: 2.6 in wins
  • Plus/minus: +257 in wins
  • Shooting efficiency: 79% in 4th quarters vs. playoff teams
  • Shot attempts: 19.6 in 1st quarter of back-to-back games
  • Free throw shooting: 100% in 1st quarter of wins
  • Free throw attempts: 1.9 in 3rd quarters on the road
  • Points: 22.6 in 1st quarter of back-to-back games
  • Offensive rebounds: 2.4 in 4th quarters vs. lottery teams
  • Defensive rebounds: 10.1 in 1st quarters vs. lottery teams
  • Total rebounds: 10.9 in 4th quarter of back-to-back games
  • Steals: 1.9 in 1st quarter of losses
  • Turnovers: 0.5 in 3rd quarters at home
  • Blocks: 1.4 in 4th quarter of back-to-back games
  • Assists: 4.6 in 2nd quarter vs. lottery teams
  • Fouls: 1.3 in 3rd quarter of back-to-back games

The spreadsheet below lists all the splits from last season for Miller.

Next up: James Jones

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