Wednesday, October 31, 2012

HEAT Produced: 120-107 Win Over Celtics in Season Opener

LeBron James dominated the first 3 quarters and Chris Bosh dominated the 4th quarter to close out a double-digit win over the Celtics after the Miami HEAT got their championship rings in the season opener.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players form a team with a 0.500 winning percentage. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Game Notes
LeBron James was the most productive player in the game with an est. 0.3 wins produced in 28.9 minutes for 0.497 est. WP48 from 26 points on 69% shooting efficiency, 4-for-5 from the free throw line, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 turnovers, 2 steals and 2 fouls. LeBron left the game in the 4th quarter with leg cramps and it's easy to see why. He was 5-7 times more productive than the average player in the game for the first 3 quarters:
  • LeBron's 1st quarter Est.WP48: 0.698
  • LeBron's 2nd quarter Est.WP48: 0.489
  • LeBron's 3rd quarter Est.WP48: 0.608

Chris Bosh picked up where LeBron left off with 0.658 est.WP48 in the 4th quarter from 7 points, 4 rebounds and 1 block in 7.3 minutes. For the entire game, Bosh produced 0.2 est. wins in 37 minutes for 0.235 est. WP48 from 19 points on 53% shooting efficiency, 3-for-4 from the free throw line, 10 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 turnover, 3 blocks and 3 fouls.

Bosh dominated his matchup with Kevin Garnett, who was limited to -0.010 est. WP48 from 9 points, 4 turnovers and 5 fouls. The most productive player in the Celtics frontcourt (and the entire team) was Brandon Bass with 0.340 est.WP48 from 15 points and 11 rebounds.

Ray Allen was the second-most productive HEAT player in the game with an est. 0.2 wins produced in 30.6 minutes for 0.312 est. WP48 from 19 points on 86% shooting efficiency, 7-for-8 from the free throw line, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 turnovers and 1 foul. That's not bad for his regular season HEAT debut and it definitely answered any questions about his shooting after a shaky preseason.

The Celtics definitely missed Allen. His replacement, Jason Terry, was the least productive Celtics player with -0.2 est. wins produced in 24.8 minutes for -0.357 est. WP48 from 8 points on 29% shooting efficiency, 4-for-4 from the free throw line, 1 assist, 2 turnovers, 1 steal and 3 fouls.

On the night he scored his 15,00th point, Dwyane Wade was the least productive HEAT player with -0.1 est. wins produced in 35.1 minutes for -0.074 est. WP48 from 29 points on 45% shooting efficiency with 9-for-11 free throw shooting, 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 turnovers, 2 steals, 1 block and 3 fouls.

HEAT fans expected Wade to close out the Celtics in the fourth quarter after LeBron left with leg cramps, but it didn't happen. What did happen was that Leandro Barbosa almost single-handedly closed the gap between the HEAT and Celtics in the 4th quarter with 16 points on 6-for-8 shooting. Barbosa was the second most productive Celtics player in the game with 0.2 est. wins produced in 15.8 minutes for 0.584 est. WP48.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced estimated from the box score for the season opener.

Original box score and play-by-play data taken from and

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