Monday, October 8, 2012

HEAT Produced: Ray Allen Pushed Norris Cole Out the Backcourt Rotation In 1st Preseason Game

Ray Allen, Norris Cole and Terrel Harris' performance in the Miami HEAT's 79-92 loss to the Atlanta Hawks in the first preseason game of the year let fans know what to expect from the backcourt rotation.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players form a team with a 0.500 winning percentage. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Game Notes
Ray Allen was the most productive HEAT player vs. the Hawks with 0.3 est. wins produced in 27 minutes (0.484 est.WP48) from 10 points on 63% shooting with 3 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 turnover, 3 steals and no fouls. Norris Cole, on the other hand, was the least productive HEAT player with -0.1 est. wins produced in 32 minutes (-0.203 est.WP48) from a poor 38% shooting efficiency, only 2 assists, 5 turnovers, just 1 steal and 3 fouls.

Mike Miller started in place of Dwyane Wade while the man from Robbinsville, IL was recovering from offseason knee surgery and Terrel Harris was the second-least productive HEAT guard after Cole with -0.053 est.WP48 from an awful 25% shooting night, 4 assists, 5 turnovers, 1 steal and 1 block but 6 fouls in 23 minutes.

Those numbers tell fans all they need to know about the HEAT's backcourt rotation this season. Cole will lose his spot to Allen and the HEAT will go with him and Miller on the perimeter with Wade or LeBron joining the second unit instead of a traditional point guard. 

Despite all the talk of how improved Cole and Harris would be with summer league and the benefit of a proper training camp, they didn't show it against the Hawks and looked like players that weren't ready to contribute as reserves in a regular NBA rotation. Lou Williams killed them with 0.467 est.WP48 from 18 points on 6 shots and 83% shooting from the floor in 24 minutes.

With the backcourt settled, the only question about the rotation left in training camp is the frontcourt.

Chris Bosh was the second-most productive HEAT player with 0.2 est. wins produced in 23 minutes (0.359 est.WP48) from 22 points on 61% shooting efficiency with 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 0 turnovers, 1 steal and 0 fouls.

Dexter Pittman was the least productive big man in the game with just 33% shooting, 4 fouls and 2 turnovers to produce an estimated -0.088 wins in 18 minutes (-0.235 est.WP48). I don't think Pittman will lose his spot on the roster because he has a guaranteed contract, but Josh Harrellson (0.187 est.WP48) and Robert Dozier (0.100 est.WP48) outplayed him by a decent margin if you're keeping score.

Al Horford continued to perform well against the HEAT with 0.3 est. wins produced in 21 minutes (0.658 est.WP48) from 8 points on 80% shooting with 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 turnovers, 4 blocks, 1 steal and just 2 fouls. The Hawks all-star big man produced an average of 0.279 est.WP48 against the HEAT in 2011 and 0.240 est.WP48 in 2012.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated from the box score of the preseason game in Atlanta.

Original box score and play-by-play data taken from and

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