Friday, October 12, 2012

Jamal Crawford: He Ain't a Killer

Jamal Crawford is not the HEAT killer he's been made out to be over the years.

There's one phrase fans were guaranteed to hear the last 5 years whenever Jamal Crawford played the Miami HEAT, "He always kills the HEAT." The HEAT play-by-play announcer referenced it when Crawford banked in his first shot against the team in China Thursday morning. The only problem is that it's not really true if you look at the numbers.

This article uses the Win Score and Wins Produced stats created by sports economist David Berri. Average players produce 0.100 Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because an average team produces a 0.500 winning percentage. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

Crawford's only scored more than 20 points 11 times in 33 games against the HEAT. His reputation as a HEAT killer was forged from 2 high-scoring performances when he played with the Knicks in 2007 and 2008 (52 and 29 points, respectively) and another big scoring night with the Warriors (40 points) after the Knicks traded him in 2008. Crawford only averages 16.5 points against the HEAT. That's 1.2 points higher than his career average, but it's not an impressive number.

The spreadsheet below lists Crawford's production against the HEAT in every game of his career.

In terms of production, Crawford's only produced an average Win Score per 48 minutes (WS48) of 3.6 against the HEAT in his career. For comparison, the average shooting guard in a HEAT game last season produced a 4.3 WS48, so Crawford's production would be below average against the HEAT's current roster.

While Crawford had a few big games against the HEAT from 2007-2008, his production against the team has been terrible in the Three Kings Era. Crawford's only produced an estimated -0.3 wins since LeBron James and Chris Bosh joined Dwyane Wade in 2010. In fact, Crawford's only provided above average production in 1 game of the Three Kings Era.

Crawford vs. HEAT in Three Kings Era
  • 12/4/2010: -0.1 est. WP in 30.8 minutes (-0.217 est.WP48)
  • 1/18/2011: 0.1 est. WP in 31.6 minutes (0.219 est.WP48)
  • 3/18/2011: -0.2 est. WP in 23.6 minutes (-0.449 est.WP48)
  • 4/11/2011: -0.02 est. WP in 31.1 minutes (-0.028 est.WP48)
  • 3/1/2012: 0.02 est. WP in 32.4 minutes (0.035 est.WP48)

Crawford's record against the HEAT is 10-23 and he hasn't been able to produce any wins against the team since the championship roster was built in 2010. It's time for fans to let go of those nightmares from 2007-2008 'cuz Jamal Crawford ain't a killer.

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