Thursday, November 8, 2012

HEAT Produced: Where's Brooklyn At? Getting Blown Out By 30 Points in Miami


LeBron James and the Miami HEAT backcourt dominated Joe Johnson and the Brooklyn Nets backcourt in a 30-point blowout at the American Airlines Arena Wednesday night.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players form a team with a 0.500 winning percentage. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

LeBron Domination
LeBron James was 7 TIMES better than the average player and easily the most productive player in the game with an est. 0.4 wins produced in 30 minutes for 0.703 est.WP48 from 20 points on 67% shooting efficiency with 12 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 steal and 1 foul. The game would've been different if Gerald Wallace wasn't out with a sprained ankle because Joe Johnson was no match for the King as the Nets' starting small forward.

Johnson was the least productive player in the game with an est. -0.2 wins produced in 32.2 minutes for -0.243 est.WP48 from just 9 points on 32% shooting efficiency.

Brooklyn Has the Best Backcourt in the NBA? GTFOHWTBS
Mario Chalmers was the second most productive player in the game with an est. 0.2 wins produced in 26.7 minutes for 0.422 est.WP48 from 8 points on 50% shooting efficiency, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 turnovers, 1 steal and 2 fouls. Chalmers stat line wasn't impressive, but it was valuable because it was so much more efficient than what Nets point guard Deron Williams was able to against Chalmers and the HEAT defense.

All-Star Deron Williams produced 0 est. wins in 30.9 minutes for -0.015 est.WP48 from 14 points on 47% shooting efficiency with just 3 assists and SEVEN turnovers. 

The Win Score statistic makes it easier to see the difference between D-Will and Rio in this game. Win Score is a simple stat that equals PTS-FGA-FTA/2+ORB+DRB/2+AST/2-TOV+STL+BLK/2-PF/2. 

Chalmers' Win Score per 48 minutes vs. the Nets was 3.6, which is not great. For comparison's sake, the average WS48 for PGs was 4.3 last season. However, Chalmers' 3.6 WS48 looks FANTASTIC compared to the -10.1 WS48 D-Will produced against the HEAT.

In terms of Win Score, the second most productive player in the game was Dwyane Wade. Wade produced an est. 0.2 wins in 32.1 minutes for 0.311 est.WP48 from 22 points on 71% shooting efficiency with 2 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 turnover, 1 steal, 2 blocks and just 2 fouls. Wade's production completed the HEAT's trifecta of dominance on the perimeter since Keith Bogans started at shooting guard for the Nets and only produced -0.118 est.WP48.

Frontcourt Depth
The Nets tried to make up for their backcourt weaknesses in the frontcourt but it wasn't enough. Kris Humphries (0.2 est. wins produced, 0.376 est.WP48) and Brook Lopez (0.1 est. wins produced and 0.264 est.WP48) were the 2 most productive Nets players and they outplayed the HEAT starting frontcourt of Chris Bosh (0 est. wins produced, -0.036 est.WP48) and Shane Battier aka Shaved Monkey Nuts (0 est. wins produced, -0.012 est.WP48).

The problem for the Nets was their backups in the frontcourt, Mirza Teletovic (-0.329 est.WP48) and Andray Blatche (-0.145 est.WP48) were outplayed by the HEAT backups in the frontcourt, Rashard Lewis (0.347 est.WP48) and Udonis Haslem (0.134 est.WP48).

When it was all said and done, both frontcourts produced 0.2 estimated wins. Lack of depth in the frontcourt was one of the reasons the Nets didn't crack the top 8 in the Preseason Fanalyst Rankings.

Not every HEAT backup thrived in the frontcourt. Josh Harrellson was the least productive HEAT player in the game with an est. -0.1 wins produced in 4 minutes of garbage time for -0.777 est.WP48 from 1 missed shot, 1 rebound, 1 turnover and 1 foul.

The spreadsheet below lists the wins produced stats estimated using box score and play-by-play data taken from popcornmachine.net, espn.com and nba.com.



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