Monday, November 26, 2012

Miami HEAT Three Kings: LeBron James, Chris Bosh and... Ray Allen? What's Wrong with Wade?

Ray Allen's offense and Dwyane Wade's defense defeated the Cavaliers but Allen's offense makes him the 3rd most productive player on the Miami HEAT and 7 times more effective than Wade after 13 games.

The HEAT Produced Page was finally updated with wins produced stats estimated from box scores for the 2013 regular season.

This article uses the Estimated Wins Produced statistic created by sports economist David Berri. Average players produce 0.100 Estimated Wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48) because a team of average players form a team with a 0.500 winning percentage. Star players produce +0.200 Est.WP48 and great players produce +0.300 Est.WP48. See the HEAT Produced Page for more information.

All HEAT fans know that Wade's struggled early this season, but how badly has he struggled? Very badly.

Wade's produced a below-average 0.028 est.WP48 and 0.2 estimated wins in 10 games this season. He produced 0.233 est.WP48 in 49 games last regular season. Ray Allen's produced 0.200 est.WP48 and 1.4 estimated wins. That's the bad news for Wade.

The good news is that Wade's production is only below average in two areas: shooting efficiency and turnovers. 

Wade's shooting efficiency from the floor and the free throw line is a below average 48% and 73%, respectively, this season. The average shooting guard in HEAT games this season is scoring with 56% shooting efficiency from the floor and 78% from the free throw line this season. Wade scored with 51% shooting efficiency last season. The addition of Ray Allen (65% shooting efficiency) to Mike Miller's #LetItFly campaign (62% shooting efficiency) has driven the average for shooting guards up 7 percentage points from last season. 

As the HEAT continue to transform into a "Pace and Space" team with shooters, giving minutes to Wade at SG with so many talented shooters available could make the team less efficient offensively. It may be better for Coach Erik Spoelstra to give Wade more time at point guard with Allen or Miller at shooting guard or even play Wade at small forward with Mario Chalmers at point guard since Wade's turnovers are high.

Wade's averaging 3.8 turnovers per 48 minutes so far this season, but last season he averaged 3.7 turnovers per 48 minutes.

Spoelstra experimented with Wade at both spots the last two games against the Bucks and the Cavaliers. The average PG is scoring with 48% shooting efficiency in HEAT games this season and the average SF is scoring with 51% shooting efficiency. Wade can score with that level of efficiency without slowing the HEAT offense.

If he can stay relatively healthy, Wade will get his offensive efficiency back to its normal levels, his production will skyrocket back to the star level where it belongs and the HEAT can have 4 Kings instead of 3.

There's no doubt Wade will work hard to get there. Efficiency was his goal for this season before it started.


  1. You can't compare someone who takes 15 shots a game with someone who takes 5 and say the latter one has a better FG%, that's BS. Wade's one of the most efficient scorers in the NBA, he has been more efficient scoring-wise than James during their careers, except last season and this one, where he's been injured. Don't hate on him, he was shooting a ridiculous 57% before he went 3-15 and 2-10 in his injured games, which f***** up his FG%.

    1. You should take a reading comprehension course.

      1) The last paragraph stated Wade's efficiency will improve if he stays healthy.

      2) Hating on Wade isn't allowed on this blog. You won't find 1 instance of it in any article posted here.